OPEC+ is widely expected to roll over its current pause on oil production increases into March when it meets on Sunday, according to five delegates cited by Reuters, even as crude prices climb above $70 a barrel amid rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran. The alliance is facing a markedly firmer price backdrop, with concerns growing that the United States could launch military action against the OPEC member.
The gathering of eight key OPEC+ producers—responsible for roughly half of global oil supply—comes as Brent crude trades close to $72 a barrel, its highest level since August. The price strength has persisted despite earlier expectations that a looming supply surplus would weigh on the market.
Those eight countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman—had collectively lifted output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, equivalent to about 3% of global demand. Further planned increases were then put on hold for January through March 2026 in response to seasonally softer consumption. Three of the delegates said the upcoming meeting is unlikely to address policy beyond March, adding that no new decisions are expected at this stage.
Neither OPEC+ nor officials in Saudi Arabia or Russia immediately commented on the reports. Separately, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which reviews compliance but does not set output policy, is also scheduled to meet on Sunday, according to the delegates.
Oil markets have been buoyed by escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme, threatening military action and deploying a U.S. naval group to the region, while existing sanctions continue to restrict Iranian oil revenues. Reuters reported on Thursday that the U.S. administration is considering targeted strikes against senior security figures in an effort to destabilise the Iranian leadership.
Additional support for prices has come from supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, where the oil industry has faced repeated operational issues in recent months. The government said on Wednesday that production at the giant Tengiz oilfield is being restarted gradually, following a series of outages that had curtailed output.