BTIG lifted McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) to Buy from Neutral, arguing that tweaks to the company’s value strategy are translating into more consistent customer traffic and laying the groundwork for a firmer rebound in sales and earnings. McDonald’s shares were up about 1.12% in Monday’s premarket trading.
The brokerage said discussions with franchisees point to sustained improvements in guest counts following deeper discounts on Extra Value Meals and the broader rollout of $5 and $8 meal bundles. These offers are helping reposition McDonald’s as a value leader after roughly two years of pressure on traffic trends.
BTIG noted that fourth-quarter momentum was solid overall, although January results took a hit from severe winter weather across parts of the U.S. Snow and ice storms led to early closures and multi-day shutdowns at some locations, dragging down same-store sales and traffic by several hundred basis points. Even so, BTIG said underlying demand remained intact and expects a rebound as weather conditions normalize.
Broader macro factors could also lend support, particularly for lower-income consumers who make up a significant share of quick-service restaurant traffic. BTIG pointed to expectations of larger tax refunds in 2026 and potential tax relief on tips and overtime as tailwinds that could begin to lift comparable sales as early as February.
New menu initiatives are another upside catalyst, according to the firm. Franchisees reported encouraging results from CosMc’s beverage tests in Denver and the upper Midwest, with a national launch anticipated in the first half of 2026. BTIG believes the beverage platform could add mid-single-digit same-store sales growth while also boosting margins.
In addition, McDonald’s is preparing to introduce the Big Arch burger—a premium offering previously tested overseas—in the U.S. as early as March. BTIG said the combination of improved traffic trends, a clearer value proposition and fresh menu platforms could deliver the company’s strongest earnings growth since 2023. The firm set a $360 price target, citing growing confidence in McDonald’s fundamentals despite recent market volatility.