A softer U.S. dollar is set to create an unusual earnings dynamic for global hotel and travel groups in the first quarter, with companies that generate a large share of revenue outside the United States likely to benefit.
The current bout of dollar weakness follows a period of strength in early 2025, resulting in an outsized foreign-exchange impact in the March quarter that analysts expect to moderate as the year goes on.
This currency move acts as a meaningful tailwind for companies that report in U.S. dollars but earn a significant portion of their revenue overseas, or that have cost structures tied to the dollar while sales are generated in other currencies.
According to Bernstein, Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG), Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) and Carnival (NYSE:CCL) stand out as the main beneficiaries.
Booking is particularly well positioned, with close to 80% of its room nights generated outside the U.S., most notably in Europe, where local currencies have strengthened against the dollar.
Airbnb derives roughly 55% of its revenue from international markets, including about 33% from Europe and approximately 11% each from Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Carnival, meanwhile, generates around 45% of its revenue outside the U.S., largely through its European cruise operations.
For these three companies, Bernstein lifted earnings forecasts by around 2% to 3% to reflect the translation benefit from a weaker dollar. Hilton, Marriott, IHG and Royal Caribbean are also expected to see some positive impact, although the effect is smaller given their more limited exposure to non-U.S. revenue.
On the downside, the effects of dollar weakness are more company-specific. Accor faces pressure despite having relatively little U.S. room exposure, as many of its premium hotels in the Middle East and Africa price rooms in dollars while reporting results in euros.
Bernstein estimates that roughly 35% of Accor’s EBITDA is linked to the dollar, creating a drag when the currency declines.
Hyatt is also negatively affected, though for different reasons. Many of its all-inclusive resorts in Mexico earn revenue in dollars but incur costs in pesos, leading to margin compression when the dollar weakens.
That dynamic reduces Hyatt’s incentive management fees.
As a result, Bernstein cut its earnings estimates for Hyatt by about 3%, noting that currency effects represent a 3% to 4% headwind to earnings in 2026 and 2027, even after taking translation benefits into account.