Shares in Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) dropped about 4% on Tuesday after the agribusiness group released 2026 earnings guidance that disappointed at the lower end, even though its fourth-quarter profit topped expectations.
The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.87 per share for the fourth quarter, ahead of the $0.80 analysts had forecast. Revenue, however, fell short, coming in at $18.56 billion versus a consensus estimate of $21.03 billion and down from $21.5 billion in the same period a year earlier.
Looking ahead, Archer Daniels Midland said it expects adjusted earnings of $3.60 to $4.25 per share in 2026. The bottom end of that range compares unfavorably with the analyst consensus of $4.24 per share, with management pointing to continued uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy as a major constraint.
“2025 was marked by a dynamic global trade landscape, and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy created a challenging operating environment for ADM,” said Chair of the Board and CEO Juan Luciano. “Despite these external headwinds, the business units showed impressive resilience and we delivered meaningful progress in the areas within our control.”
Performance across divisions was uneven. Operating profit in the Ag Services and Oilseeds segment — ADM’s largest business — fell 31% year on year to $444 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting weaker soybean export volumes and softer crush margins in both North and South America. The Carbohydrate Solutions segment saw profit decline 6% to $299 million, while Nutrition segment profit dropped 11% to $78 million compared with the prior year.
For the full year 2025, ADM reported adjusted earnings of $3.43 per share, down 28% from the previous year, as total segment operating profit declined 23% to $3.2 billion.
Despite the softer earnings outlook, the company announced a 2% increase in its quarterly dividend, extending its streak to 53 consecutive years of dividend growth. ADM also reiterated that it remains on track to deliver between $500 million and $750 million in cost savings over the next three to five years.