Ford Q4 profit misses estimates, but 2026 guidance seen as solid

Ford Motor (NYSE:F) reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of profit expectations but exceeded revenue forecasts, while issuing a stronger outlook for 2026 despite rising tariff-related costs.

Shares were marginally higher in premarket trading Wednesday, up less than 1%.

The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker posted adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share for the fourth quarter, missing analyst estimates by $0.05.

Quarterly revenue climbed to $45.9 billion, ahead of the $44.2 billion consensus forecast. For full-year 2025, Ford generated total revenue of $187.3 billion.

The company recorded a net loss of $11.1 billion in the fourth quarter and $8.2 billion for the year, largely reflecting special items.

On an adjusted basis, fourth-quarter EBIT totaled $1.0 billion, below the $1.2 billion analysts had expected. Full-year adjusted EBIT reached $6.8 billion. Operating cash flow for 2025 stood at $21.3 billion, with adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion.

Looking ahead, Ford projected 2026 adjusted EBIT in the range of $8 billion to $10 billion, along with adjusted free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion. Capital expenditures are expected to total between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion, as the company continues investing in next-generation vehicles and operational efficiency.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that “the midpoint of the 2026 adj. EBIT guidance came in 5.4% below our estimate and 1.2% below consensus.”

“Tariffs drove a modest miss in 4Q while ongoing Novelis-related costs drove the midpoint of the 2026 EBIT guide below expectations,” they added.

Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley said Ford delivered a “strong 2025 in a dynamic and often volatile environment,” highlighting efforts to reduce material and warranty expenses while improving vehicle quality.

Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the company’s disciplined capital allocation strategy and product pipeline should help expand margins over time.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy said Ford’s 2026 forecast “largely cleared the bar.”

“While we await more details from the call, the initial underlying assumptions seem reasonable,” he said.

Ford expects roughly $2 billion in tariff-related costs this year, stemming from measures imposed under President Donald Trump, with a significant portion linked to aluminum sourcing for its F-150 pickup trucks.

The automaker reaffirmed its long-term target of achieving an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029, as it seeks to offset cost pressures while improving execution across its traditional and electric vehicle segments.

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