U.S. equities may draw in around $11 billion in weekly inflows as tax refunds are distributed through mid-April, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte.
Thatte pointed out that the mid-February to mid-April window has historically accounted for roughly one-third of total annual inflows into U.S. stocks, making it a seasonally strong period for equity demand.
Deutsche Bank’s economists estimate that individuals could receive an extra $50 billion to $100 billion in tax refunds this year. In addition to supporting markets, this wave of repayments could also provide a boost to consumer spending.
Still, Thatte cautioned that the uplift for equities may not match the surge seen in 2021, when fiscal stimulus payments were significantly larger. He added that investor perceptions of economic growth and risk conditions will be key in determining whether refund-related liquidity converts into sustained market gains.
Thatte notes that “risk appetite so far this year has been fragile,” referring to AI-led selloff in software names.
Separately, Deutsche Bank analysts reported that global earnings climbed approximately 15% in the fourth quarter, reaching their highest level in three-and-a-half years, with emerging markets and the U.S. driving much of the growth.
The bank also lifted its projections for the first quarter and for full-year 2026, highlighting substantial upward revisions in South Korea and Taiwan, where artificial intelligence-related demand has strengthened the outlook.