Investors returning to markets this week are expected to focus heavily on the evolving outlook for President Donald Trump’s tariff policy following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his emergency trade measures. Trump’s swift move to introduce new broad-based tariffs has added fresh uncertainty to global trade relations and existing international agreements. Markets will also be watching closely for earnings from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia and other technology companies, alongside developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations.
1. Trump’s 15% global tariffs
Trade policy has once again taken center stage after Trump responded to the court decision by unveiling temporary global tariffs of 15% under provisions of a 1974 trade law.
An initial White House statement indicated tariffs would begin at 10% on Tuesday, but the rate was later increased over the weekend.
Congress — whose constitutional authority over trade was central to the Supreme Court’s ruling — has the option to extend the Section 122 tariffs beyond their expiry. However, analysts at ING noted that Trump could also renew the measures himself by allowing them to lapse, declaring a new emergency and restarting the 150-day window, effectively creating a “de facto perpetual tariff instrument.”
2. U.S. to halt collection of emergency tariffs
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency said it will stop collecting tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court starting at 12:01 a.m. EST (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday. The agency did not clarify why duties continued to be collected after the ruling or whether affected importers may receive refunds.
In guidance sent to shipping companies, CBP added that the suspension applies only to tariffs struck down by the court and does not affect other duties imposed by Trump under national security or unfair trade statutes.
Outside the United States, trading partners are seeking clarity on how the ruling could affect recently negotiated agreements. The European Commission requested “full clarity” from Washington regarding future tariff policy, while China said it was conducting a “full assessment” of the decision and urged the U.S. to abandon “unilateral tariff measures.”
3. Nvidia earnings take center stage
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) will be a major focal point this week, with investors awaiting results that many see as a key indicator for the global artificial intelligence investment cycle and broader equity market direction.
The company is scheduled to release earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday. Shares of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” megacap technology companies have largely paused their rally this year after surging following the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, which ignited massive enthusiasm — and spending — around AI infrastructure.
While these companies have been viewed as primary beneficiaries of the AI boom and major drivers of broader market gains, sentiment has cooled recently amid concerns over competitive disruption and questions about how quickly large AI investments will translate into profits.
“This week could prove the most important of the U.S. earnings season […]. It’s not only Nvidia investors who will be nervous ahead of the company’s results; the entire global equity market may be on edge, given the importance of the AI trade,” said Laurence Booth, Global Head of Markets at CMC Markets.
4. Dell earnings ahead
Also on the corporate calendar, Dell (NYSE:DELL) will report quarterly earnings after Thursday’s market close.
Demand for Dell’s servers has benefited from rising investment in AI-driven data centers, prompting the company to raise its annual revenue and profit outlook in November. The firm has secured contracts with the U.S. Department of Energy and counts CoreWeave and Elon Musk’s xAI among its customers.
However, Dell continues to face rising production costs, particularly due to higher memory chip prices tied to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. Competition has also intensified, especially from rivals such as Super Micro Computer.
5. U.S.–Iran talks in focus
Geopolitical developments will also remain in focus, with analysts at Vital Knowledge describing the coming days as a “crucial week” for Iran amid a looming deadline tied to Trump’s stance on potential military action by around March 1.
The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Thursday, according to Oman’s foreign minister.
An increased U.S. military presence in the Middle East has heightened concerns about renewed regional conflict. Trump has urged Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear programme quickly, warning that “really bad things will happen” if negotiations fail.
Iran remains a key member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and holds some of the largest proven crude oil reserves globally. Oil prices were trading lower on Monday.