Oil prices declined during Asian trading on Friday after the United States and Iran agreed to continue negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, while traders also assessed the potential impact of increasing Venezuelan crude exports on global supply balances.
Brent crude futures for April delivery fell 0.4% to $70.48 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declined 0.5% to $64.92 per barrel as of 20:15 ET (01:15 GMT).
Both benchmarks were slightly lower for February overall, as supply risks tied to geopolitical tensions were counterbalanced by expectations of growing global output and concerns about softer demand conditions.
U.S.–Iran negotiations end without deal, technical talks to resume
Talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear ambitions wrapped up Thursday without a formal agreement being reached.
However, both sides indicated they would continue discussions, with mediator Oman confirming that technical-level negotiations are scheduled to take place next week in Vienna.
Developments surrounding Iran were a major influence on oil markets throughout February, particularly as the United States expanded its military presence in the Middle East and warned of possible action if diplomacy failed.
“Oil supply could be anywhere between 10mb/d lower or 1mb/d higher than current levels, depending on the outcome of current peace talks,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
“However, the Strait of Hormuz is the focus. Anything short of sustained disruption to oil supplies in that waterway would likely see only temporary rallies in the oil price,” ANZ analysts said, adding that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was likely to increase production to offset any supply disruptions.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, with Iran controlling part of its northern coastline. Any escalation involving the country could disrupt shipments through the passage, which handles a significant share of global crude flows.
Venezuelan oil exports expected to increase under U.S. agreement
Oil shipments under a recently implemented supply arrangement between the United States and Venezuela are projected to reach roughly $2 billion by the end of February, according to U.S. officials.
The agreement follows Washington’s takeover of Venezuela’s oil export operations earlier this year after the capture of President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, paving the way for increased production and exports.
Since then, Venezuela has expanded domestic output, while major trading houses including Vitol and Trafigura have taken leading roles in marketing the country’s crude. Buyers across Asia and Europe — including major importer India — are expected to receive Venezuelan cargoes in the coming weeks.
The return of Venezuelan barrels to international markets represents a notable increase in global supply, a factor that could weigh on crude prices in the months ahead. Concerns about a potential supply surplus in 2026 have already been a significant drag on oil prices in recent months.