U.S. equity futures traded slightly below the flatline on Wednesday as investors monitored the uncertain trajectory of the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices swung following reports that the International Energy Agency could release a record volume of emergency reserves, while markets also awaited key U.S. inflation data later in the day. Meanwhile, Oracle issued a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook, supported by demand for artificial intelligence data centers.
U.S. futures slip slightly
By 04:51 ET, futures tracking major U.S. indices were modestly lower. Dow futures dropped 98 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures edged down 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 20 points, or 0.1%.
The previous trading session ended with mixed results on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posted small losses, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite finished marginally higher.
Much of the market’s attention remained on developments in the Middle East, where the United States has warned of the possibility of launching its most intense round of strikes on Iran since the joint campaign with Israel began late last month.
Despite the rhetoric, equities largely held steady. Analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note that investors appeared to look past the comments, while sentiment was supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data and upbeat Chinese trade figures. Technology stocks also advanced, with semiconductor and chip component companies posting notable gains.
IEA considering record oil reserve release
A central concern in the Iran conflict is the potential disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage through which roughly one-fifth of global crude supply moves.
Fears that Tehran might attempt to block the waterway have caused sharp swings in oil markets in recent days. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is currently trading near $90 per barrel after surging to around $120 earlier in the week. Shipping activity through the strait has slowed dramatically, as tanker operators worry about crew safety and face difficulties securing insurance.
“The current risk premium in oil prices, driven by threats to the Strait of Hormuz, highlights the severe fragility of global supply chains and the urgent need to develop massive, stable energy reserves,” said Robert Price, CEO of March GL.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, the International Energy Agency is considering releasing strategic reserves on an unprecedented scale to stabilize oil prices following volatility linked to the Iran conflict.
Officials cited in the report said the proposed release could exceed the 182 million barrels released by IEA member states after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A decision on the proposal could come as early as Wednesday.
Trump threatens stronger action over mining claims
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that American attacks on Iran could intensify following reports that Tehran may have deployed naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
After CNN reported that Iran had positioned mines in the strait—though not extensively—Trump said on Tuesday that Iran would be struck “at a level never seen before” if the mines were not removed.
The U.S. military said it had targeted 16 Iranian vessels believed to be involved in mine-laying operations near the strait. Dan Caine added that storage sites for naval mines had also been attacked.
However, the timeline for the conflict remains unclear. Trump has said the fighting would only stop with Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” although a White House spokesperson indicated that the determination of such surrender would ultimately be made by Trump rather than Iranian officials.
On Wednesday, the United States and Israel exchanged strikes with Iran across several locations in the Middle East.
CPI data in focus
Markets will also be closely watching the latest U.S. consumer inflation data for February.
Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 2.5% year-over-year, slightly above January’s 2.4% increase. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to increase 0.3%, compared with 0.2% previously.
Core CPI—which excludes more volatile items such as food and energy—is projected to come in at 2.5% annually and 0.2% month-on-month.
Later in the week, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for January will also be released. Analysts expect the measure to show annual inflation of 3.1% and a monthly increase of 0.4%. The indicator is closely followed because it is considered one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation.
Importantly, the data largely reflects the period before the escalation of U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran. The resulting surge in oil prices has raised concerns that inflationary pressures could intensify globally, potentially prompting central banks to consider tightening monetary policy.
Oracle beats expectations
Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations and issued an optimistic revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for cloud infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence data centers.
The company also raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance, sending its shares sharply higher in extended trading.
Oracle reported adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share on revenue of $17.19 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Analysts had anticipated earnings of $1.70 per share on revenue of $16.92 billion.
Revenue in the cloud segment climbed 44% year-on-year to $8.91 billion.
Commenting on the results, Raimo Lenschow said the report suggests “a clearer path ahead.”