Oil climbs as concerns over Middle East export infrastructure return to focus

Oil prices moved higher on Monday as markets once again turned their attention to risks facing oil export facilities in the Middle East, despite calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy transport.

Brent crude futures rose $2.73, or 2.7%, to $105.87 a barrel by 0730 GMT, following a $2.68 gain on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by $1.65, or 1.7%, to $100.36 a barrel after climbing nearly $3 in the previous session.

Both benchmarks have surged more than 40% this month, reaching levels not seen since 2022. The rally followed U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, after which Tehran halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—cutting off about one-fifth of global oil supply in what has become the largest disruption of its kind.

“U.S. strikes over the weekend on Kharg Island raised supply concerns, as most of Iran’s oil exports pass through it,” ING commodity strategists said on Monday.

Although the attacks appeared to target military rather than energy infrastructure, ING noted that supply risks remain significant, since Iranian oil is currently among the only crude still moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the weekend, Trump warned of additional strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island—responsible for handling roughly 90% of the country’s oil exports—after earlier military targets there were hit, prompting Tehran to respond with threats of further retaliation.

Iranian drones later struck a major oil terminal in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates shortly after the Kharg Island attacks. According to four sources, oil loading operations at Fujairah have since resumed, though it remains unclear whether activity has fully returned to normal levels.

Fujairah, which lies outside the Strait of Hormuz, serves as an export outlet for about 1 million barrels per day of the UAE’s flagship Murban crude—equivalent to roughly 1% of global oil demand.

“The U.S. is weighing high-risk ground options, including raiding nuclear sites for Iran’s enriched uranium, seizing the Kharg Island oil hub, and occupying southern Iran to protect the Strait of Hormuz,” SEB analyst Erik Meyersson said in a note.

“All of these imply significant escalation and require a tolerance for substantially higher risk.”

On Sunday, Trump said he was urging other nations to assist in safeguarding the strategic energy corridor, adding that Washington was in discussions with several governments about providing security in the area.

Trump also noted that the U.S. remained in contact with Iran, though he expressed skepticism that Tehran was ready to engage in serious negotiations to bring the conflict to an end.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said Sunday that more than 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves would soon begin entering the market—a record release intended to offset price spikes caused by the Middle East conflict.

According to the agency, reserves from Asia and Oceania will be released immediately, while supplies from Europe and the Americas will become available by the end of March.

“As the conflict enters its third week, the lack of a clear denouement has left global markets increasingly worried about an uncontrollable escalatory spiral,” SEB’s Meyersson said.

Despite the tensions, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that he expected the conflict to end within “the next few weeks,” with oil supply recovering and energy prices easing afterward.

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