U.S. equity futures pointed lower on Thursday as investors sifted through a wave of reports about possible negotiations aimed at ending the Iran conflict. Oil prices remained above $100 per barrel, the U.S. dollar strengthened slightly and gold prices moved lower. Meanwhile, Jefferies Financial (NYSE:JEF) reported first-quarter results that were weighed down by losses tied to loans issued to companies that later collapsed.
Futures edge lower
Futures linked to major U.S. stock indexes moved down early Thursday as traders weighed the likelihood of diplomatic progress in the Iran war.
By 04:18 ET, Dow futures were down 203 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures had fallen 35 points, or 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 156 points, or 0.6%.
Wall Street’s main indexes had closed higher in the previous session on hopes that the United States and Iran might enter talks to bring an end to the nearly month-long conflict. Media reports suggested Tehran had privately indicated a willingness to engage in discussions with Washington. U.S. Vice President JD Vance is also reportedly prepared to travel to Pakistan as early as this weekend to take part in negotiations.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the U.S. and Israel may delay attempts to assassinate Iran’s foreign minister or parliament speaker while diplomatic communications continue.
However, signals from both sides remain inconsistent. The opposing parties appear far apart on the conditions required to stop the fighting, and the Pentagon has been moving additional ground forces into the Middle East.
At the same time, Israeli officials — whose country has been conducting military operations against Iran alongside the U.S. — are said to be worried that Washington could announce a one-month ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has therefore ordered a new two-day offensive aimed at destroying as much of Iran’s military capacity as possible, according to reports from the New York Times and CNN.
Oil trades above $100 a barrel
Amid the ongoing stream of developments from the Middle East, oil prices again climbed above the $100-per-barrel mark on Thursday.
Brent crude futures for May delivery, the global benchmark, were last up 3.4% at $105.73 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose 3.7% to $93.67 a barrel.
Iran is said to be examining a 15-point peace proposal from the United States. At the same time, the White House has warned that further air strikes could target the country if it refuses to reach an agreement. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said U.S. President Donald Trump “does not bluff and […] is prepared to unleash hell,” although the Wall Street Journal has reported that Trump has privately told aides he would prefer to see the war brought to a rapid end.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that the Trump administration has officially scheduled the president’s upcoming visit to China for May 14–15, which could indicate that Washington expects the conflict to conclude before then.
Despite the swirl of news and speculation, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The key shipping route — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passes — has been largely inaccessible for weeks due to the threat of Iranian attacks. While oil prices have retreated somewhat from the near-$120 per barrel peak seen earlier this month, they remain significantly higher than levels recorded before the conflict began in late February.
Dollar strengthens
Oil remaining above $100 per barrel has helped support the U.S. dollar even as risk appetite has improved slightly, analysts at ING said.
The greenback has been one of the main safe-haven assets sought by investors since the conflict began, rising about 2% over the past month.
A dollar index measuring the currency against a basket of peers — which has fluctuated sharply this week amid headlines related to the Iran war — was last up 0.1% at 99.70.
“Markets may well require some more convincing headlines on de-escalation to take the dollar meaningfully lower from here,” ING analysts including Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner wrote in a note.
Gold declines
The strength of the U.S. dollar has helped cap any rebound in gold prices, which have fallen since the conflict began after reaching a record high earlier this year.
Some market commentators believe gold’s sharp rally in recent months reduced its relative appeal, encouraging investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets as the conflict spread across the Middle East.
At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer in response to inflation driven by higher energy prices have reduced demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
Spot gold was down 1.7% at $4,432.27 per ounce at 05:02 ET, while gold futures fell 2.7% to $4,461.59 per ounce.
“In the near term, gold is trading inside a defined range. The market needs to clear the mid-$4,500s and hold it to shift the tone. Until that happens, rallies can still run into resistance and turn into selling opportunities,” American Hartford Gold President Max Baecker told Investing.com.
Jefferies earnings disappoint
Separately, Jefferies Financial (NYSE:JEF) released quarterly results that fell short of expectations, as losses linked to loans extended to companies that later collapsed overshadowed solid investment banking performance during the first quarter.
The company said it recorded $17 million in losses — after adjusting for compensation and taxes — tied to the collapse of British lender Market Financial Solutions and First Brands, a U.S. auto-parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy.
However, Jefferies President Brian Friedman told Reuters that the outlook for mergers, acquisitions and initial public offerings should remain “increasingly strong” provided that the Iran conflict reaches a “reasonable end.”
According to Dealogic data cited by Reuters, more than $1 trillion worth of deals have already been announced in 2026, representing a 27% increase compared with the same period in 2025. Potential large technology IPOs expected later this year could add further momentum to dealmaking activity.