Goldman Sachs has slightly reduced its forecast for average copper prices in 2026 to $12,650 per tonne, down from a previous estimate of $12,850, as it factors in softer demand linked to slower global economic growth. Despite the downgrade, the bank maintained a positive long-term view on the metal, citing strong structural demand tied to electrification.
The bank now projects a global copper market surplus of around 490,000 tonnes this year, higher than its earlier estimate of 380,000 tonnes. This revision follows a reduction in Goldman’s forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year from 2%. The adjustment reflects expectations that rising energy prices caused by disruptions in the Middle East will shave about 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth.
Goldman noted that the downward revision for copper demand was less severe than the adjustment made for aluminium, which it attributed to copper’s growing structural importance within the global economy.
“This is a smaller demand revision than aluminium because of the increasingly strategic and structural nature of copper demand, making it less sensitive to global economic cycles,” analysts led by Aurelia Waltham said.
In the short term, Goldman expects continued volatility in copper prices but believes the market could find support if economic conditions stabilize.
Under its base-case scenario—assuming that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz begin to normalize from mid-April—the bank expects copper prices to average about $12,700 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026. Prices are then projected to ease toward Goldman’s estimated fair value of around $12,000 per tonne during the second half of the year.
The bank also warned that current copper prices may not fully reflect underlying fundamentals. Even after a pullback in March, copper remains well above Goldman’s 2026 fair value estimate of roughly $11,100 per tonne, leaving the metal “vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk.”
Goldman added that potential supply disruptions in the Middle East are not yet included in its projections. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—which accounts for roughly 15% of global copper mine output—depends on sulfur shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz for a key stage in its production process.
According to industry feedback cited by the bank, producers in the DRC typically maintain sulfuric acid inventories covering up to three months of operations. As a result, a brief interruption would likely have limited impact, though a prolonged disruption could tighten supply and reduce the expected surplus.
Looking further ahead, Goldman left its long-term forecast unchanged, expecting copper prices to reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035. The analysts argued that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may actually reinforce the electrification trend, noting that electricity grids and energy infrastructure are projected to account for about 60% of global copper demand growth through 2030.