Markets have remained volatile through April, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rapid shifts in investor sentiment.
In this episode of The Market This Month, Anna Serin and Bruce Campbell break down the recent market swings, the divergence between oil and metals, and why Canadian markets — particularly small and mid-caps — are beginning to outperform the U.S.
They also explore what continued strength in financings means for the junior market, how capital is being deployed, and whether seasonal trends could shape opportunities heading into the summer months.
Watch the video above, or read the full transcript below.
Markets rebound as commodities diverge and Canada leads
The following transcript has been edited for clarity.
Anna:
Welcome to The Market This Month. I’m Anna Serin, Director of Listings Development with the Canadian Securities Exchange, and today we’re taking a closer look at what’s been driving markets over the past few weeks, particularly through the lens of Canadian and junior capital markets.
It’s been a period marked by volatility, largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We saw a sharp reaction across global markets, with a risk-off sentiment taking hold. But notably, that move appears to have been somewhat overdone to the downside.
What’s been just as interesting is how quickly markets have rebounded, reinforcing the resilience we’re continuing to see in the current environment.
From a commodities perspective, we’re seeing some divergence. Oil has been moving higher, supported by ongoing uncertainty, while metals have pulled back. For Canadian markets, where resources play such a significant role, this creates a more nuanced backdrop — particularly for junior issuers navigating capital raising and investor attention across sectors.
What’s particularly notable is how Canada is performing relative to the U.S. right now. We’re seeing Canadian markets leading, with strength coming from small and mid-cap companies. That’s an important signal for the junior space, where access to capital and investor engagement are often the first to feel shifts in sentiment.
Despite the broader uncertainty, financings on the CSE are continuing. Capital is still being deployed even against a backdrop of geopolitical risk, which speaks to underlying confidence — especially in high-quality growth stories.
Over the past few weeks alone, we’ve seen activity such as Quebec Innovative Materials Corp. announcing a $15 million bought deal offering alongside Gencan Capital Inc., which launched a private placement targeting up to $5 million — reinforcing that the market remains open for companies with strong narratives.
We’re also continuing to see new companies come to market on the CSE, which is another strong indicator of momentum in the space. Over the past month, we’ve welcomed several new listings, including QuantumCore Limited, Allied Strategic Resources Corp., Elysian Mineral Exploration Corp., ICG Silver and Gold Limited, Rockbridge Resources and Rise NanoOptics.
It’s a mix of resource and technology-focused companies, reflecting the diversity of the growth pipeline and continued interest in accessing public capital.
So today, we’re going to unpack what all of this means, where opportunities are emerging, how investors are positioning, and what it signals for the months ahead.
I’m joined, as always, by Bruce Campbell of Stonecastle Investment Management, and I’m looking forward to diving into it
I’m now joined by Bruce Campbell with Stonecastle Investment Management. Thank you for joining me, Bruce.
Bruce:
Hey, Anna. How are you doing?
Anna:
I’m good. We’re starting our conversation in April 2026. It’s never a dull moment in the markets these days.
Let’s start with the volatility we’ve seen due to what’s happening in the Middle East. What are you seeing there?
Bruce:
There’s been a lot of volatility. It’s been driven by the Middle East, but also by how quickly information is moving.
Investors don’t like uncertainty, and that’s exactly what we saw. Markets initially sold off, commodities moved, and then much of that has reversed.
We’re recording this in mid-April, and things have largely flipped from where they were earlier in March — with the exception of oil.
Anna:
Let’s talk about commodities. Oil is up and metals are down — what does that signal to you?
Bruce:
Energy moved sharply higher when the news first broke, which makes sense given the potential impact on global supply.
But it’s probably moved more than expected. Based on supply disruption, oil might have been expected in the mid to high $70 range, but it’s trading closer to $90 to $100.
That suggests some overshoot, although uncertainty remains.
On the other side, metals like gold, silver and copper have pulled back. They’re still up year-to-date, but we’ve seen a correction.
Anna:
What does that mean for the Canadian junior market?
Bruce:
It creates opportunity.
In energy, investors typically move from large caps down to smaller names. We’ve already seen strength in larger companies and are now starting to see interest trickle down.
In metals, the pullback has been sharper in equities than in the underlying commodity. That creates opportunity, particularly if prices stabilize.
As earnings come through, we could see strong cash flow numbers, which may drive M&A activity as larger companies look to acquire rather than build.
Anna:
Let’s talk about Canada versus the U.S. Canada seems to be leading right now.
Bruce:
Yes, we’re seeing a shift.
Historically, markets move in cycles where one region outperforms for extended periods. The U.S. has led for over a decade, but that may be changing.
Canada has outperformed over the past year across multiple market caps. Strength in commodities, banks and industrials is driving that.
Technology remains dominant in the U.S., but investors are increasingly looking to Canada for value.
Anna:
We’re also seeing strong financing activity on the CSE. What are you seeing there?
Bruce:
It’s a major shift from 18 to 24 months ago when capital was scarce.
Now, financings are being oversubscribed and often upsized. That indicates strong demand and gives companies more flexibility.
We’re also seeing activity across multiple sectors, not just resources — including technology and industrials.
New listings are increasing as well, which is another positive signal.
Anna:
That’s encouraging. But the next step is how companies deploy that capital.
Looking ahead to May, what should investors be watching?
Bruce:
Seasonality is one factor. Markets are typically weaker in the summer, but that doesn’t always hold.
We saw a correction earlier this year, which could create opportunities moving forward — similar to last year.
If commodity prices hold and companies deploy capital effectively, we could see strong news flow and continued opportunities, especially in small caps.
Anna:
Absolutely. It feels like every month brings new global shifts impacting Canadian markets.
Thank you again for joining me, Bruce.
Bruce:
Thanks for having me. Never a dull moment.
Anna:
Never a dull moment. We’ll talk again next month.