Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) outlined its 2026 outlook on Thursday, forecasting annual vehicle deliveries of between 62,000 and 67,000 units. The electric vehicle maker expects adjusted EBITDA to come in between a loss of $2.10 billion and $1.80 billion, while capital expenditures are projected in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion.
Q1 Results Top Expectations but Market Reaction Turns Negative
For the first quarter, Rivian reported adjusted EBITDA of -$472 million, beating consensus estimates of -$500 million, with revenue of $1.38 billion broadly in line with forecasts.
Despite the stronger-than-expected results, shares dropped around 4% in premarket trading on Friday.
“Relative to our estimates, the beat came from regulatory credits – a surprise, as we assumed little to no reg credits,” analysts at Barclays noted.
Margin Pressure and Revenue Mix Shift
Gross profit declined compared with the same period last year, largely due to a $100 million reduction in automotive regulatory credit sales and shifts in product mix. Revenue per vehicle also came under pressure, as commercial vans accounted for a larger share of total sales.
Growth in Software and Services
The company saw strong momentum in its software and services segment, where revenue rose 49% year over year. This growth was driven by increased demand for vehicle electrical architecture, software development services, as well as repair and maintenance offerings.
Georgia Plant Expansion and Long-Term Plans
Rivian increased its planned production capacity at its Georgia facility to 300,000 units annually for its mid-sized R2 vehicles, up from a previous target of 200,000. The company said the higher capacity should help improve cost efficiency over time.
The automaker reiterated that it remains on schedule to begin production at the Georgia plant in late 2028.
Strategic Developments
Rivian has already started production of its R2 model and recently secured a $1 billion investment from Volkswagen Group, reinforcing its longer-term growth strategy.