TD Cowen has raised its long-term forecast for the global GLP-1 market, projecting annual sales of diabetes and obesity treatments in the category will reach $150 billion by 2030.
The revised estimate marks an increase from the firm’s previous forecast of $139 billion, reflecting stronger expectations for patient adoption and continued expansion of the market.
Patient Numbers Expected to Grow Significantly
The brokerage now anticipates that approximately 59 million people worldwide will be using GLP-1 therapies by the end of the decade.
That compares with its earlier projection of 46 million patients, highlighting expectations for broader access to treatment and increasing demand for weight-management and diabetes medications.
According to TD Cowen, growth in patient volumes should more than offset pricing pressures expected across the sector.
Lower Prices Seen Driving Wider Adoption
The firm noted that future price reductions are likely to be accompanied by substantial increases in treatment uptake.
As manufacturers expand production capacity and competition intensifies, lower pricing could help make GLP-1 therapies accessible to a larger patient population, supporting continued market growth despite potential pressure on revenue per prescription.
Oral Treatments Poised to Capture Larger Share
TD Cowen also upgraded its outlook for oral GLP-1 medications, which are expected to become an increasingly important segment of the market.
The firm now forecasts that oral formulations will account for 14% of global GLP-1 sales by 2030, compared with its previous estimate of 11%.
The growing role of pill-based treatments reflects expectations that some patients and healthcare providers will favor oral alternatives over injectable therapies when clinically appropriate.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Expected to Remain Dominant
Despite the arrival of new competitors, TD Cowen expects the market to remain heavily concentrated among the current industry leaders.
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is projected to hold approximately 62% of the global GLP-1 market by value in 2030, while Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is expected to account for roughly 31%.
Together, the two pharmaceutical companies are forecast to control the overwhelming majority of industry sales as demand for obesity and diabetes treatments continues to accelerate worldwide.
Obesity and Diabetes Markets Continue to Expand
The revised forecast underscores growing confidence in the long-term potential of GLP-1 therapies, which have transformed treatment options for both Type 2 diabetes and obesity.
With patient adoption expected to increase substantially over the coming years, the sector remains one of the fastest-growing areas within the global pharmaceutical industry.