Standard Chartered believes the cryptocurrency market has already reached the low point of its current cycle, with Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) recently touching $59,000 after falling 53% from its record high of $126,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, identified two developments that could help confirm a broader recovery is underway.
Peace Prospects and SpaceX IPO Seen as Key Catalysts
In a research note published Friday, Kendrick said a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement linked to discussions at the G7 summit could ease pressure on financial markets.
If an agreement is reached, it “may sound the end to higher oil prices and therefore higher UST yields,” he said.
Kendrick also pointed to the highly anticipated IPO of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), arguing that the event could mark the end of a period of heavy selling by Bitcoin ETF investors.
According to the analyst, some ETF holders have reportedly been reducing their Bitcoin exposure to free up capital ahead of the record-breaking offering.
That trend has contributed to some of the largest ETF outflows since spot Bitcoin funds were launched.
Analyst Looking for Additional Confirmation
To strengthen the case that the market has already bottomed, Kendrick said he would like to see several developments occur over the coming days.
These include additional Bitcoin purchases by Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), positive net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and continued weakness in oil prices.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” he wrote.
$100,000 Bitcoin Target Remains Intact
Earlier this month, Kendrick reaffirmed his long-standing forecast that Bitcoin could climb to $100,000 by the end of the year.
“When we look back at the end of 2026 with bitcoin at $100k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he said in a research note published in early June.
The optimistic outlook comes despite a sharp decline in Bitcoin over the past several months.
Bitcoin Remains Near Recent Lows
Bitcoin has lost more than half of its value since reaching a peak in October last year, despite a series of crypto-friendly measures introduced by the Trump administration.
The cryptocurrency rose 0.9% on Friday to $63,337.8 and was on course to record a modest weekly gain.
However, that followed a steep 17% decline during the previous week.
Although sentiment has improved somewhat, Bitcoin continues to trade close to its yearly lows as institutional investors remain net sellers through spot exchange-traded funds.