SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares were down 4.6% in premarket trading after KeyBanc adopted a more cautious view on the stock, arguing that the company’s valuation has become increasingly demanding following its strong performance since listing.
The decline reflects growing debate among investors over whether SpaceX’s long-term growth opportunities are sufficient to support its current market capitalisation after a substantial post-IPO rally.
KeyBanc Takes Neutral Position on the Stock
KeyBanc initiated coverage of Space Exploration Technologies with a Sector Weight rating, suggesting that much of the company’s future growth potential is already reflected in the share price.
Among analysts covering the stock, six currently maintain Buy ratings. KeyBanc opted for a neutral stance, while CFRA remains the only major brokerage with a Sell recommendation.
The firm described SpaceX as “the dominant leader in space launch and space-adjacent verticals” but believes the risk-reward profile is currently balanced until investors gain clearer insight into the development of the Starship programme.
Premium Valuation Draws Scrutiny
According to KeyBanc estimates, SPCX is trading at roughly 29 times projected 2027 sales and 71 times enterprise value to EBITDA.
Those multiples represent a substantial premium compared with companies operating in the space, artificial intelligence and communications sectors.
The brokerage argues that while SpaceX possesses exceptional growth assets, current valuations already reflect a significant portion of that opportunity.
Starlink Remains the Core Profit Driver
SpaceX currently operates through three primary business divisions: Connectivity, Space and AI.
The Connectivity segment includes the Starlink satellite broadband business, which generated approximately 61% of group revenue during 2025.
Starlink remains the company’s largest earnings contributor, producing roughly $11.4 billion in revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 63% last year.
KeyBanc believes the strength of this business provides an important valuation foundation.
“At sufficient scale, Connectivity alone is capable of supporting a meaningful portion of enterprise value, which we believe limits downside to the overall story and allows the remaining segments (AI, Space) to be valued more as incremental upside rather than required for the thesis to hold,” the analysts wrote.
AI Business Offers Significant Growth Potential
The AI division was formed following the February 2026 merger between SpaceX and Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI.
The segment includes the Grok chatbot platform and supporting computing infrastructure.
Although the business remains unprofitable, it has secured several major long-term contracts, including an agreement with Anthropic valued at approximately $1.25 billion per month and another with Google worth around $920 million per month.
KeyBanc forecasts AI revenue could reach approximately $50.6 billion by 2027, making it the company’s largest medium-term growth engine.
However, analysts noted that Grok still trails major competitors in enterprise adoption. The firm estimates U.S. business adoption at 3.1%, compared with 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI.
As a result, KeyBanc believes the next one to two years represent a “prove it phase” for the platform.
Starship Progress Remains Critical
The brokerage identified Starship as one of the most important variables affecting the investment case for SpaceX.
The next-generation rocket is expected to play a central role in deploying future Starlink V3 satellites, lowering launch costs through full reusability and eventually supporting orbital data-centre infrastructure.
Starship flight 13 is currently scheduled for June 29.
While analysts remain optimistic about the programme’s ultimate success, they cautioned that “we take a conservative approach on its development timeline.”
Limited Float Continues to Influence Trading Dynamics
SpaceX has approximately 13 billion shares outstanding, with only around 5% of the total share count available through the public float.
In addition, Elon Musk’s holding, representing approximately 42% of the company’s shares, remains subject to a lock-up agreement that runs until June 2027.
The restricted supply of tradable shares has been viewed by some market participants as a factor contributing to the stock’s volatility since its public debut.