Morgan Stanley has increased its forecast for Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) second-quarter vehicle deliveries after stronger-than-expected sales trends in Europe and China, although the bank continues to take a cautious view of the company’s energy storage business.
The brokerage now expects Tesla to deliver around 413,000 vehicles during the second quarter, up from its previous estimate of approximately 373,000 and above the current market consensus of roughly 401,000 units. The upward revision reflects stronger vehicle registrations and sales data recorded across major international markets in April and May.
Europe provided the largest positive surprise, with registrations running comfortably ahead of year-earlier levels and April extending the recovery that followed a difficult period in 2025. China also showed improving momentum, as domestic sales rebounded both month-on-month and year-on-year in May, ending two consecutive months of annual declines and pointing to stabilising demand. Although U.S. sales remained below last year’s levels through May, regional trends still exceeded Morgan Stanley’s previous expectations.
Morgan Stanley maintained its US$415 price target on Tesla but said it remains more conservative than the broader market regarding the company’s energy storage operations. The bank forecasts second-quarter energy storage deployments of 11.8 GWh, below the consensus estimate of approximately 14.3 GWh, citing a cautious outlook on project timing following delays experienced during the first quarter. Even so, it expects deployments to accelerate during the second half of the year, with full-year installations reaching roughly 55 GWh, broadly matching market expectations.
The stronger delivery outlook also led the brokerage to increase its earnings forecasts. Morgan Stanley raised its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA estimate by 11% and modestly lifted its full-year revenue and profit projections, reflecting higher expected vehicle deliveries and improved automotive margins.
Tesla shares rose 1.2% to close at US$379.71 on Friday after reaching an intraday high of US$387.80. The stock added a further 0.2% in after-hours trading to US$380.41.