Stifel has upgraded Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) to Buy from Hold and increased its price target to $150 from $110, saying the stock’s 23% decline since the start of the year presents an attractive opportunity for investors seeking long-term growth.
In a research note published on Friday, analyst J. Parker Lane described Shopify as a high-quality business with an expanding competitive advantage, adding that the company is leading the development of what he called “agentic commerce.”
According to Lane, Shopify is “writing the agentic commerce playbook” while continuing to strengthen its position across legacy platform migrations, enterprise customers, B2B, international markets and payment services.
Drawing on industry discussions and proprietary survey data, Stifel believes Shopify has “a realistic path to 30%-plus revenue growth in 2026 and sustained mid-20s beyond.”
Market Share Continues to Expand
Lane highlighted Shopify’s first-quarter gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $101 billion, an increase of 35% year-over-year, as evidence that the company continues to gain market share.
That performance compares with growth of just 9.8% across the broader U.S. retail e-commerce market over the same period.
Management said demand remained broad-based, with growth supported across multiple regions, merchant categories and sales channels.
Multiple Growth Drivers Support Outlook
Stifel identified several factors that could continue to drive Shopify’s expansion.
The firm’s enterprise business is gathering momentum, with the number of merchants generating more than $100 million in GMV on Shopify having “nearly doubled over the last two years.”
Business-to-business activity also continued to accelerate, with B2B GMV increasing 80% during the first quarter.
International operations remained another bright spot, as international GMV climbed 45%, while cross-border commerce accounted for 16% of total GMV.
Lane also noted that although the United States represents roughly 40% of global e-commerce sales excluding China, it generated 63% of Shopify’s 2025 revenue, suggesting there is substantial room for international expansion.
Agentic Commerce Seen as the Next Growth Engine
Stifel believes Shopify’s disciplined approach to operations and capital allocation positions the company well as agentic commerce develops into a larger market opportunity.
The firm said Shopify’s financial flexibility and strategic execution should allow it to capitalise on the next phase of AI-driven commerce while continuing to expand its competitive position.