S&P 500 companies are delivering strong second-quarter results, with Wolfe Research pointing to widespread revenue beats, upbeat guidance and an unusually robust earnings growth outlook for 2026.
According to the research firm, 465 companies in the S&P 500 had reported their second-quarter 2026 results through Wednesday. Of those, 69% exceeded consensus revenue forecasts, with the dollar-weighted revenue surprise reaching 3.8%.
Third-quarter guidance reaches strongest level since COVID period
Corporate guidance has also provided an encouraging signal for the remainder of the year.
Wolfe Research said 86 S&P 500 companies had issued guidance for the third quarter of 2026, with 64% providing a midpoint above consensus expectations.
The firm noted that this represents the highest proportion of above-consensus guidance since the COVID period, suggesting companies are becoming increasingly confident about near-term operating conditions.
The combination of widespread revenue beats and stronger forward guidance reinforces the positive earnings momentum currently supporting US equities.
S&P 500 earnings growth forecast at 31% for 2026
Wolfe Research expects S&P 500 operating earnings per share to increase 31% in 2026.
However, the headline figure includes substantial one-time gains generated by mega-cap technology companies. Adjusting for those effects, Wolfe estimates underlying earnings growth at approximately 27%.
Even on that adjusted basis, the firm considers the current fundamental backdrop exceptionally strong.
According to Wolfe Research, the earnings outlook represents the strongest fundamental environment outside of a post-recession recovery in more than 50 years.
AI spending raises key question for 2027
Attention is now shifting towards whether the current pace of earnings expansion can continue into 2027.
Wolfe Research identified the sustainability of profit growth as one of the central issues for investors, particularly as major companies continue increasing capital expenditure related to artificial intelligence.
Heavy AI investment could support future productivity and revenue growth, but the scale of spending will also increase scrutiny over whether companies can generate sufficient returns to justify rising capital requirements.
For now, the combination of strong second-quarter results, unusually positive corporate guidance and projected double-digit earnings expansion leaves the S&P 500 with substantial fundamental momentum heading into the remainder of 2026.