Six months into the Iran war, OPEC+ is facing a markedly different oil market, with its traditional ability to influence supply and prices weakened by widespread disruption across the Middle East.
The conflict has restricted one of the region’s most important oil export routes and damaged energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries, reducing the alliance’s market share and limiting the impact of its policy announcements.
At the same time, weaker Chinese crude imports have become one of the defining forces in the oil market during 2026, helping offset what analysts describe as an unprecedented supply disruption.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, accounted for around 40% of global oil output in July, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data.
That compares with more than 48% before the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Around four to five percentage points of the decline, however, reflected the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC in May.
The core group of seven OPEC+ producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, represented only around a quarter of global oil output in July.
Hormuz disruption limits OPEC+ flexibility
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has materially reduced OPEC+’s ability to quickly raise or cut supply.
The route is vital for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and other major producers, meaning output increases announced by the group cannot necessarily translate into additional exports.
OPEC was created in 1960, while OPEC+ was formed in 2016 as Russia and other producers joined forces with the organisation to help address its declining share of global production.
OPEC’s share of world crude output peaked at roughly 50% during the oil shocks of the 1970s before falling towards 30% by the mid-1980s as production increased in the North Sea, Alaska and Siberia.
OPEC did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. The alliance has consistently said its decisions are intended to promote market stability rather than defend a specific oil price.
Supply disruptions caused by conflict are not new for the group. Kuwait was severely affected during the 1990-91 Gulf War, while Iraqi production was disrupted following the 2003 US-led invasion.
What makes the current situation different is the scale of the interruption across several producers at the same time, leaving OPEC+ with less spare flexibility to compensate for lost barrels elsewhere.
Since March, the core OPEC+ group has announced six production increases. However, most have had limited practical impact because the Hormuz blockade has prevented much of the additional supply from reaching global markets.
The main exception came in July, when a short-lived ceasefire between the US and Iran raised hopes that shipping through Hormuz might resume and briefly restored some influence to OPEC+ policy signals.
Market focus shifts from planned output to physical exports
The contrast with 2019 is significant. At that time, OPEC+ decisions were closely watched because traders focused heavily on how much oil the group intended to produce.
Today, the more important question is how much crude can actually be extracted, transported and exported while the Middle East conflict continues.
That shift has reduced the immediate importance of production quotas and increased attention on logistics, infrastructure and physical supply availability.
China becomes a major balancing force
One of the biggest influences on oil prices this year has been a sharp decline in Chinese crude imports.
Since the conflict began, China has purchased roughly 400 million fewer barrels of oil than during the comparable period last year.
The decline reflects restrictions on fuel exports, weaker refinery activity and the growing adoption of electric transport.
This trend is increasing China’s importance in balancing the global oil market, a role that was previously associated much more closely with OPEC+ and its ability to adjust production.
China’s softer demand has helped cap oil prices during 2026, limiting the upward pressure that might otherwise have resulted from the disruption to Middle Eastern supply.
That represents a notable change from last year, when strong Chinese buying may have accounted for as much as half of global oil demand growth and helped provide significant support to prices.
“They’ve become the swing demand centre,” said June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities.
With OPEC+ facing supply constraints and China exerting greater influence through changes in demand, the balance of power in global oil markets is becoming more diversified.