Citi and ANZ have raised their Brent crude oil price forecasts as disruptions to Middle East supplies continue to affect the global oil market.
Citi increased its third-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $86 per barrel. The bank described the current situation, including a U.S. blockade of Iran and reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as unsustainable.
Citi expects renewed dealmaking or other developments to allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen during the fourth quarter. The bank estimates that reopening the waterway would result in an oil-market surplus of between 3 million and 4 million barrels per day, compared with its previous estimate of approximately 2 million barrels per day.
ANZ separately raised its short-term Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel.
The bank said the oil market is entering what it described as a delicate adaptation phase as inventories decline. ANZ expects additional demand destruction will be required to rebuild inventories.
ANZ estimates that the conflict will remove between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion barrels of Persian Gulf oil supply during 2026. The bank expects cumulative supply losses to exceed 2 billion barrels by the end of October.
The revised forecasts reflect the banks’ respective assessments of the effects of Middle East supply disruptions and potential changes in flows through the Strait of Hormuz.