Jefferies said resale pricing for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest high-end iPhones in Hong Kong is below levels recorded for comparable models last year, which the broker said could indicate softer demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.
According to the analysts, the iPhone 18 Pro was trading at discounts to Apple’s official pricing across almost all storage configurations. Resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max declined sharply on launch day and subsequently remained low or moved lower.
The 256GB iPhone 18 Pro Max was the only version retaining what Jefferies described as a meaningful resale premium, trading around 8% above Apple’s official price. Higher-capacity versions were priced lower, with the 2TB model trading HK$1,049 below its official price as of 5 p.m. on September 27.
Jefferies attributed part of the difference to price increases of $400 and $500, which the analysts said may be high relative to consumers’ perceived value of the new models.
The broker also pointed to Apple’s use of lower-cost QLC NAND rather than TLC NAND in the 1TB and 2TB versions. Jefferies said the change could affect the relative appeal of the higher-capacity models based on storage performance.
As of September 27, resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max were below those recorded for the iPhone 17 Pro Max at the equivalent point a year earlier across all storage configurations except the 256GB version, according to Jefferies.
Delivery Lead Times Show Mixed Picture
Delivery lead times provided a less consistent indication of demand. Jefferies said lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max shortened across most markets early in the previous week before increasing again towards the weekend.
The analysts cautioned that the later increase could reflect tighter availability as Apple increases production of its DUO device ahead of deliveries scheduled to begin October 23, rather than an increase in underlying demand.
As of September 27, iPhone 18 Pro Max lead times were longer than a year earlier in Hong Kong, China and the United States, shorter in Britain and Germany, and unchanged in Japan.
For the iPhone 18 Pro, lead times were longer year over year in Hong Kong and China, shorter in the United States and Germany, and unchanged in Britain and Japan.
Jefferies Flags China eSIM Considerations for DUO
Pre-orders for Apple’s DUO device are scheduled to begin October 16. Jefferies said adoption in China could face a constraint because the device is eSIM-only and supports two eSIM numbers in the country, compared with support for as many as eight on eSIM-compatible iPhones in Hong Kong.
The broker said this limitation could affect Chinese consumers who use multiple telephone numbers for work, personal purposes or international travel.
According to Jefferies, users who have already reached the two-number limit and want to add a travel eSIM after arriving in China may need to suspend one of their domestic numbers through an in-person visit to a mobile operator. Reactivating the number would require another visit.
Jefferies said these restrictions may have a limited effect on early adopters but could become more relevant to broader demand. The analysts also cited the possibility that some consumers could wait if they expect Apple to introduce a second-generation regular-sized foldable device in 2027.
Jefferies maintained its Underperform rating on Apple. The report cited the shares at $341.07.