DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) and other US online sports betting operators face potentially weaker revenue performance following unfavourable betting results during the fifth week of the NFL season and sixth week of college football, according to analysis from Susquehanna.
The investment firm’s proprietary model indicates that bookmaker hold was unfavourable during the latest reporting week, raising concerns about betting margins across the US sports wagering industry.
Bookmaker hold represents the proportion of total wagers retained by operators after paying out winning bets. A lower hold percentage generally reduces revenue generated from betting activity, assuming other factors remain unchanged.
Susquehanna’s analysis covers NFL games played between Monday Night Football and Sunday Night Football, alongside college football fixtures held from Wednesday through Saturday.
The model suggests that recent game outcomes were less favourable for bookmakers, contributing to weaker estimated profitability from sports betting operations during the week ending Sunday.
According to Susquehanna, the latest results have pushed October’s month-to-date hold into unfavourable territory, following a September in which hold was also weak and declined compared with the same period a year earlier.
The consecutive periods of weaker hold could present a near-term revenue headwind for operators such as DraftKings, particularly during the early stages of the American football season, when NFL and college football wagering represent important sources of betting activity.
Although customer wagering volumes remain an important measure of demand, the percentage of bets retained by operators can significantly influence reported sportsbook revenue.
A period of unfavourable sporting results can therefore affect financial performance even when overall betting activity remains relatively stable.
Susquehanna’s model estimates national sports betting outcomes across the United States rather than relying exclusively on data from individual states.
The firm noted that official figures from New York, the country’s largest legal sports betting market, could provide an additional indication of industry performance.
New York typically publishes weekly sports betting data approximately three days after the end of its Sunday reporting period.
Susquehanna expects the state figures to be directionally consistent with its national estimates, although differences may arise because of regional sporting outcomes and variations in customer betting patterns.
Other factors, including volatility in wagering activity among high-value customers and differences in geographic coverage, can also contribute to discrepancies between New York’s reported results and the firm’s broader model.
For DraftKings, the findings highlight the potential impact of short-term sporting outcomes on sportsbook revenue and margins.
However, weekly hold estimates do not necessarily indicate a sustained deterioration in underlying customer demand or longer-term business performance.
The financial implications for DraftKings and other operators will depend on subsequent betting results, wagering volumes and the extent to which margins recover during the remainder of October.
Official state-level data and forthcoming company financial updates will provide further information on how recent sporting outcomes have affected revenue across the sector.