Oil prices fluctuated on Monday as investors assessed the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies alongside renewed concerns about energy shipments following attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures recovered from earlier losses to trade 69 cents, or 0.7%, higher at $105.41 per barrel by 09:23 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 57 cents, or 0.6%, to $92.42 per barrel.
The price movements followed reports of further attacks on energy and transport infrastructure in the Middle East, as well as comments from US President Donald Trump regarding an increase in Russian diesel exports.
Saudi Arabia Attacks and Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
The Iran-aligned Houthi movement claimed responsibility for an attack on Riyadh’s international airport on Saturday that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Additional attacks were reported on Sunday.
The incidents added to concerns about regional security and the movement of energy supplies through the Middle East.
Further attacks on commercial vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz have also been reported this month, potentially affecting the recovery in regional crude oil exports observed during September.
According to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), one tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar, Oman, while another vessel sustained damage while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway remains an important route for international oil shipments, and continued security incidents could affect shipping activity and transportation costs.
Goldman Sachs Raises December Brent Forecast
Goldman Sachs increased its December Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, citing an estimated geopolitical risk premium of slightly more than $20 per barrel.
The bank also provided updated expectations for US crude prices.
“We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.
The difference between Brent and WTI prices reflects, in part, the elevated cost of transporting US crude to European markets, according to the bank.
Separately, energy companies Shell, Chevron and BP were working to return personnel to offshore platforms and restore production in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Isaias made landfall early on Saturday.
Russian Diesel Exports and Gasoil Prices
European gasoil futures fell 4.3% to $1,419.50 per metric tonne following Trump’s announcement on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels, of diesel to US and international markets.
The president also indicated that further shipments could follow.
However, analysts questioned the scale of the potential increase in Russian exports because of damage to the country’s refining infrastructure.
“The immediate impact of the deal is questionable, as Russia’s refining capacity has been severely reduced,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.
“However, Moscow has partially lifted its ban on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 tons (around 3.7 million barrels) to be released onto the international market —equivalent to roughly one day of US consumption and around 13% of global demand.”
The figures cited by Varga indicate that Russia has authorised some additional diesel exports, although the timing and extent of deliveries remain uncertain.
Proposed Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire
Trump also announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was awaiting further details of the proposed arrangement, while Russia had not commented on the announcement.
The absence of confirmation from both governments left uncertainty over whether the proposed ceasefire would result in a suspension of attacks on energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol called on member countries to assess whether additional diesel releases were necessary.
Birol also said countries that had not yet delivered their full pledged volumes should accelerate releases, prioritising diesel supplies.
Oil and refined fuel markets therefore faced competing developments, with potential increases in Russian diesel availability offset by concerns about Middle Eastern shipping security and the effects of recent attacks on energy infrastructure.