UBS analysts are signaling a cautious outlook for Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), pointing to waning consumer enthusiasm for electric vehicles (EVs) and pricing pressures as potential obstacles to the company’s near-term growth.
Insights from the bank’s latest 2025 UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Survey suggest that overall demand for EVs is cooling, and Rivian could feel the impact. “Declining EV interest and affordability concerns may limit near-term growth,” the analysts said.
Although Rivian has seen a modest uptick in brand recognition in the United States—rising from 10% last year to 13% in 2025—UBS notes that buyer interest remains tepid. “Only ~5% of BEV owners/buyers indicated they would consider purchasing a RIVN (up from 4.5% last year),” the report states. That figure is just slightly above Rivian’s estimated 2024 U.S. battery electric vehicle (BEV) market share of approximately 3%, excluding vans.
Despite consumers continuing to look for more EV options, UBS found that the overall level of interest in EVs has softened. The bank also warns that regulatory uncertainty could further stall the market. “Given potential pushout of EPA requirements and repeal of the California waiver, the EV inflection may be further out than expected,” UBS said. The loss of the California waiver, which allows the state to set stricter emissions standards, could also “impact Rivian’s ability to generate and sell Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits.”
Affordability stands out as another major hurdle for Rivian, according to the survey. “Only ~35% of respondents believed EVs are affordable vs. ICE vehicles,” UBS noted. Rivian’s R1S SUV and R1T pickup both carry starting prices above $69,000—significantly higher than the $47,900 average U.S. vehicle price.
Adding to the potential headwinds is uncertainty surrounding government incentives. UBS estimates that roughly 59% of Rivian’s 2024 vehicle leases were backed by clean vehicle tax credits, which could be eliminated depending on future policy shifts.
“Near-term, especially if U.S. policies move away from an EV world, continued cost out of the R1 and increased manufacturing efficiencies are key,” the analysts advised.
UBS continues to rate Rivian as Neutral, acknowledging its long-term promise but emphasizing a more challenging road ahead in the short term.