Markets Dip as Trump’s Iran Decision Looms: Key Drivers

U.S. stock futures edged lower as investors remain concerned about possible U.S. involvement in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. The White House stated that President Donald Trump will decide on the matter within two weeks. Meanwhile, European diplomats are meeting with Iranian officials to try to ease tensions. Despite falling on Friday, Brent crude prices remain on track for a weekly gain as fears persist over supply disruptions.

1. Stock Futures Decline

Futures fell early Friday as the Israel-Iran conflict entered its second week. By 03:36 ET:

  • Dow futures dropped 89 points (0.2%)
  • S&P 500 futures fell 10 points (0.2%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures declined 32 points (0.1%)

Markets were closed Thursday for a U.S. holiday. Global stocks slipped and the dollar strengthened, with investors seeking safe havens amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Traders are also digesting several central bank decisions from the Bank of England, Norges Bank, and Swiss National Bank. The Fed held rates steady Wednesday, maintaining a cautious stance as Trump’s trade policies cloud the economic outlook.

2. Trump to Decide on Iran Within Two Weeks

President Trump will determine within two weeks whether the U.S. will join Israel in airstrikes against Iran, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. She cited a possibility of upcoming negotiations with Iran but didn’t confirm whether Congress would be consulted before any military action.

Earlier this week, Trump said he “may or may not” target Iranian nuclear sites. The conflict began with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which Iran countered, claiming its program is for peaceful purposes. Tensions remain high with no sign of de-escalation. European diplomats are set to meet Iranian officials in Geneva on Friday.

3. Oil Prices Slide but Weekly Gain Intact

Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to $77.02 per barrel by 03:38 ET, while West Texas Intermediate futures dipped 0.1% to $73.84. Despite the pullback, Brent is headed for a third straight weekly gain. Oil prices surged nearly 3% Thursday in light holiday trading.

Concerns persist that the conflict could spread, especially around the key Strait of Hormuz, a major global oil route. ING analysts noted markets are still trying to assess the likelihood of U.S. involvement.

4. Home Depot Eyes GMS Acquisition – WSJ

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is reportedly bidding for GMS (NYSE:GMS), a building products distributor, according to the Wall Street Journal. The offer price was not disclosed. GMS shares jumped in after-hours trading.

Earlier this week, Brad Jacobs’ QXO offered to buy GMS for $5 billion ($95.20 per share). GMS, based in Georgia, has drawn acquisition interest amid growing housing demand despite tariff-related economic uncertainty.

5. SoftBank Proposes $1 Trillion AI Hub in U.S.

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is seeking to partner with chipmaker TSMC and the Trump administration to build a $1 trillion AI-focused industrial hub in the U.S., Bloomberg News reports.

Dubbed “Project Crystal Land,” the complex would manufacture AI-driven industrial robots and boost domestic tech production. Son has discussed tax incentives with U.S. officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and is courting other tech firms. TSMC’s involvement is still unclear.


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