Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) App Store generated around 12% year-over-year revenue growth in June, according to UBS, citing data from Sensor Tower. The figure reflects steady momentum from May and was bolstered by a favorable currency effect of approximately 200 basis points due to a weaker U.S. dollar.
Adjusting for foreign exchange (FXN), the growth rate cooled slightly, declining about 70 basis points month-over-month to land near 10%. Despite the slight slowdown, UBS analysts noted, “growth was fairly consistent between the U.S. (~12%) and Rest-of-World (ROW) (~13%) on a reported basis,” although baseline comparisons between regions varied considerably.
In the U.S., App Store revenue climbed 11% in the June quarter, outpacing the March quarter by roughly 100 basis points. Meanwhile, revenue from ROW also rose 12% on a reported basis—about 250 basis points above the previous quarter. Still, when excluding FX impacts, ROW growth held steady at 10%.
UBS has not revised its outlook for Apple’s Services revenue in the June quarter, maintaining its estimate of approximately 11% growth. However, it did suggest a slight upward bias due to currency movements. “Considering that FX should be at least a 100 bps smaller headwind than previously expected, we believe that there is upside risk to our ‘Services’ revenue estimate,” the firm wrote.
UBS noted that if revenue growth lands one percentage point above its current ~11% projection, Services could bring in $27.1 billion, compared to the current forecast of $26.9 billion—potentially adding about one cent to Apple’s $1.40 EPS projection.
The European Union’s new Digital Markets Act, which gives developers the option to distribute apps outside the App Store ecosystem, has yet to make a noticeable dent. “Sensor Tower data suggests the impact has been relatively muted in the EU thus far, with growth run rating in the mid-20s% since Jan-24,” UBS highlighted.
Given that Europe represents a high-single-digit share of global App Store revenue—compared to roughly one-third from the U.S.—UBS said the risk to Apple’s top line remains “relatively limited,” even with recent fee structure changes.
UBS continues to rate Apple shares as Neutral, with a 12-month price target of $210, matching the stock’s current trading range.