Analysts at Jefferies suggest Apple could increase prices for the upcoming iPhone 18 models following robust second-quarter demand and rising costs.
Jefferies noted about 22% year-over-year growth in equipment sales from major U.S. telecoms during Q2 2025—the highest in six quarters—attributed to a “pull-in” ahead of potential tariffs. This indicates that industry trackers like Counterpoint and IDC might be underestimating Apple’s shipment growth.
Jefferies maintains a forecast of an 8% year-over-year increase in iPhone shipments for the June quarter, surpassing Counterpoint’s and IDC’s estimates of 4% and 1.5%, respectively. Despite the strong performance, the firm does not expect a stock re-rating based solely on these results.
Looking ahead, Jefferies expects Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to raise prices on the iPhone 18 Slim, Plus, and Pro Max by around $50 to offset higher component costs and tariffs related to China. This would represent a 4%–5% price increase year-over-year, though the firm warns the hike may only partially cover increased expenses.
Jefferies also highlighted Apple’s accelerating production shift to India, forecasting 18% of iPhone 18 units to be made there in the second half of 2025, rising to 35% by late 2026. However, lower manufacturing yields and higher logistics costs in India may pressure margins.
“Supply chain security and India’s localization requirements may drive Apple to move production despite financial drawbacks,” Jefferies added.
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