Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) plunged 14% in early trading Wednesday, as investors reacted sharply to disappointing third-quarter guidance that undercut recent enthusiasm from retail traders and activist investors. Despite posting second-quarter revenue of $1.6 billion—surpassing expectations—and marking its first positive adjusted EBITDA since 2022, the company’s weaker Q3 outlook sparked concerns over long-term momentum.
The drop comes after a July surge in retail interest, fueled by activist investor and EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson. Through a series of posts on social media, Jackson sparked bullish sentiment by suggesting Opendoor could be valued as high as $82 per share and signaling a renewed activist push. “I’ll saddle up again for OPEN,” he wrote on X. His remarks coincided with a dramatic rally in the stock, which soared nearly 900%—from $0.51 to almost $5—temporarily restoring Nasdaq compliance and allowing the company to cancel a planned 50-to-1 reverse stock split.
Many investors were hoping Tuesday’s earnings call would provide a compelling roadmap from CEO Carrie Wheeler. Instead, shareholders were underwhelmed. The call was criticized for lacking energy and direction on key themes like AI or margin growth. When asked by Bloomberg about the retail-driven rally, Wheeler quipped, “It probably wasn’t on my bingo card for 2025.” Jackson was quick to criticize her tone, responding, “I’m out on Carrie Wheeler. Next man or woman up!”
A key point of frustration among activists is the perception that Opendoor is underutilizing a decade’s worth of proprietary data—from home prices and locations to photos and agent behavior. Both Jackson and Randian Capital have advocated for a pivot toward AI, suggesting Opendoor could become “the AI lab of the housing market.” As Randian posted after the call: “Opendoor has the potential to be reshaped as an AI-first housing company… This requires a leader with the chops to do it.”
Wheeler, however, focused on expanding the company’s operational efficiency. She highlighted a capital-light, agent-led strategy and promoted “Cash Plus,” a hybrid offering aimed at reducing capital outlay while giving sellers more flexibility. “We are building on that foundation by expanding our agent-led distribution platform, enabling partner agents to offer multiple solutions to address each homeowner’s needs,” she stated during the call.
Still, financial metrics painted a mixed picture. Home sales in Q2 totaled 4,299, up 5% year-over-year, but acquisitions dropped sharply—down 63% to 1,757 homes. Gross margin slipped to 8.2%, and Q3 revenue is now forecast to come in between $800 million and $875 million—well below the $1.2 billion consensus estimate. At the midpoint, that guidance reflects a 48% quarter-over-quarter decline.
CFO Salim Freiha explained the cautious stance as a result of risk management efforts, such as wider offer spreads and scaled-back marketing. “Conditions had stabilized toward the end of Q2,” he said, though they remained “well below” early-quarter levels. Investors, however, appeared unconvinced. Jackson asked pointedly, “No mention of the AI opportunity in front of them?… Where was the passion and grand strategic vision from Carrie?”
Randian Capital echoed this critique in comments shared with Investing.com, emphasizing the need for a new leader—“a CEO with the vision and charisma to execute on what we see as the largest AI opportunity hiding in plain sight,” and ideally “in the mold of [Palantir CEO] Alex Karp” who can champion a long-term platform strategy.
While Wheeler is credited with navigating challenging market conditions, Jackson and others argue her leadership lacks the boldness needed to unlock Opendoor’s potential. He even called for the return of co-founder Keith Rabois, who has himself been critical of current leadership. “Your founder DNA. Your vision… This is our return of Steve Jobs moment,” Jackson said.
As Opendoor edges toward sustainable profitability, pressure is mounting from investors who want transformational change, not just financial stability. The company has yet to comment publicly on these calls.
Despite the market reaction, Jackson signaled that investor hope remains. “One thing we’ve learned is that it doesn’t take much for this stock price to flip upwards on the sniff of good news coming,” he said.
Opendoor Technologies stock price
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