Shares of Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), traded in Copenhagen, rose over 5% on Friday, extending gains from the previous session. The boost came after rival Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) released trial results showing its weight-loss pill was less effective than Novo’s blockbuster drug, Wegovy.
On Thursday, Lilly announced that its late-stage trial of the experimental GLP-1 pill, orforglipron, demonstrated an average weight loss of 12.4% after 72 weeks. Participants receiving a placebo lost just 0.9%.
Lilly has promoted orforglipron as a once-daily, more affordable alternative to injectable obesity treatments such as its own Zepbound and Novo’s Wegovy. These two drugs currently dominate the obesity treatment market, which is expected to reach $150 billion in value by the early 2030s.
According to analysts quoted by Reuters, expectations had been high for orforglipron to match Wegovy’s 14.9% weight loss seen over 68 weeks in a 2021 trial. Some had even predicted orforglipron might outperform Wegovy.
The Lilly results followed a separate June study from Novo Nordisk, which revealed that its experimental drug CagriSema produced nearly 23% weight loss in overweight or obese adults, and close to 16% weight reduction in overweight patients with type 2 diabetes.
Mizuho analysts noted in a report that Lilly’s trial also recorded a dropout rate of nearly 25% among patients on the highest orforglipron dose, compared to a 29.9% placebo dropout rate. The analysts commented that this raised questions about “something about the study that is odd/unique and will need to get some clarity here.”
Following the announcement, Novo’s shares rebounded, climbing more than 7%, after recent declines triggered by a profit warning and news of senior management changes.
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