Oil markets were largely unchanged Wednesday as investors weighed the latest U.S. inventory data ahead of a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Brent crude for October ticked up 0.1% to $66.15 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged down 0.1% to $63.14 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen on Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.5 million-barrel increase in U.S. oil inventories, surpassing forecasts of a 0.8 million-barrel draw. The data raised concerns that fuel demand in the U.S. may be softening as the busy summer travel season concludes. The official EIA inventory report is expected later Wednesday.
Focus on Trump-Putin Talks
Oil traders are closely watching the upcoming Alaska meeting between Trump and Putin, intended to explore solutions for ending the Ukraine conflict. The meeting comes as Washington has threatened additional sanctions on Russian oil, including potential tariffs on key buyers such as India and China. Trump previously floated a 50% tariff on oil imports from India.
On the Russian side, authorities maintained their previous conditions for ending the war, including full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from occupied regions and abandoning NATO aspirations. Russia currently controls 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea, Luhansk, more than 70% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, plus portions of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk. Analysts at ING said the meeting’s outcome could ease some sanction-related uncertainty in the market.
Supply and Demand Pressures
Recent reports from the EIA and OPEC suggest global oil supply will rise in the coming months, adding pressure on prices. OPEC slightly raised its demand forecast for 2026, reflecting cautious optimism.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) upgraded its oil supply growth forecast for this year but downgraded demand projections, citing weak fuel consumption across major economies. “Consumer confidence remains low, and a strong rebound in demand appears unlikely,” the Paris-based agency said, warning of a market with excess supply.
While U.S. sanctions on Russia continue to loom, higher production and softer demand have weighed on crude prices throughout 2025. OPEC+ meanwhile increased next year’s demand forecast but reduced supply growth expectations from the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers, pointing to a slightly tighter market in the future.
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