Global oil production is projected to expand more than anticipated in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), following a decision by key producers to boost output.
In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based organization raised its outlook for world oil supply to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 2.1 million bpd.
OPEC has implemented a series of production increases this year as it gradually rolls back output cuts imposed over the past three years, while also aiming to capture a larger share of the global oil market.
“Global oil supply growth has been revised up by 370 kb/d to 2.5 mb/d this year and by 620 kb/d to 1.9 mb/d in 2026, after the eight OPEC+ members subject to voluntary output reductions agreed on 3 August to raise production by another 547 kb/d in September, fully unwinding the 2.2 mb/d cuts agreed to in November 2023 since April,” the IEA said, in its report.
Despite the increase in OPEC+ output, non-OPEC producers are expected to remain the main drivers of global supply growth this year and next, the IEA added.
The agency also lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2025, now predicting a rise of 680,000 bpd, slightly below the previous estimate of 700,000 bpd.
“The latest data show lacklustre demand across the major economies and, with consumer confidence still depressed, a sharp rebound appears remote,” the IEA said.
“Consumption in emerging and developing economies has been weaker than expected, with China, Brazil, Egypt and India all revised down compared with last month’s.”
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.