Gold prices inched higher on Monday, recovering from a more than two-week low as uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict persisted.
At 04:55 ET (08:55 GMT), spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,348.30 an ounce, while October gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,393.97/oz. The yellow metal had dropped last week after U.S. President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential peace deal with Ukraine.
Trump to Meet Zelensky, European Leaders
Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting failed to secure a ceasefire, and the focus now shifts to Trump’s upcoming meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and leading European officials at the White House later Monday.
Reports suggest that Trump may push for Ukraine to cede some territory to Russia to facilitate a peace agreement—a position Kyiv has consistently rejected. Trump also indicated that Ukraine would need to relinquish Crimea and halt its NATO membership aspirations to reach a deal with Russia.
Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of Monday’s discussions, keeping safe-haven assets like gold in demand even as broader risk appetite has shown signs of improvement. Trump’s previous meeting with Zelensky at the White House in February ended without resolution after a heated exchange between the two leaders.
UBS Raises Gold Forecast
UBS has lifted its long-term real gold price forecast to $2,800 per ounce from $2,200, implying nominal prices near $3,100 by 2030 when adjusted for inflation. Short- and medium-term estimates remain unchanged, but the bank anticipates gold reaching new highs in the coming quarters before easing late next year or in early 2027.
“Prices should ease thereafter, but the correction is unlikely to be steep enough to bring gold back to previous cycle lows,” strategists led by Joni Teves said. “Instead, we see a scenario where, after a period of moderation and stabilization, gold settles at significantly higher levels than in previous cycles.”
The forecast revision reflects “structurally higher production costs” and expectations for limited growth in mine supply, as producers prioritize organic expansion, regional consolidation, and portfolio adjustments over large-scale mergers and acquisitions. UBS also highlighted gold’s “broadening investor base” and its ongoing role as a strategic asset amid changing global trade and political dynamics, elevated macroeconomic risks, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
“In an environment where global trade and political relationships are shifting, macroeconomic risks are high and geopolitical risks persist, diversification is more crucial than ever,” the team said. “We think gold presents investors with one of the cleanest ways to hedge against these risks.”
Jackson Hole Symposium in Focus
All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium this week, which is expected to offer guidance on the central bank’s rate strategy. CME FedWatch indicated on Monday that markets see an over 83% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, slightly lower than last week’s near-certainty.
Market expectations for a rate cut have been tempered by hotter-than-expected producer inflation, raising concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs on inflation. Despite this, the dollar remained rangebound on Monday after losing ground last week.
Mixed Performance in Other Metals
Other precious metals saw mixed activity, with platinum futures down 0.2% to $1,343.00/oz, while silver futures rose 0.4% to $38.133/oz.
In industrial metals, London Metal Exchange copper futures fell 0.3% to $9,750.53 a ton, and COMEX copper futures dropped 0.3% to $4.4790 a pound. Copper declined late last week after weaker-than-expected industrial production and fixed asset investment data from China sparked concerns about demand in the world’s largest copper-consuming nation.
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