Morgan Stanley expects Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to deliver another set of robust results next week, even as expectations remain elevated. The firm lifted its price target to $206 from $200 and kept its Overweight rating in place, emphasizing confidence in the chipmaker’s growth trajectory through 2026.
“We expect a strong quarter and outlook, but we’re a little measured on the current quarter – our optimism centers on what lies ahead,” wrote analyst Joseph Moore and his team.
For the July quarter, Morgan Stanley now forecasts $46.6 billion in revenue, up from $45.2 billion, and sees October revenue reaching $52.5 billion, compared with a prior $51.3 billion estimate. For fiscal year 2026, projections were increased to $273.2 billion in revenue and $6.51 in non-GAAP EPS, from $264.6 billion and $6.28.
On the demand side, hyperscale customers were described as seeing demand that is “remarkable,” “insatiable,” and “massive,” according to feedback highlighted in the note. Morgan Stanley also pointed to growing inference workloads and stronger contributions from tier-2 cloud providers and specialized players like CoreWeave.
While supply constraints remain the near-term challenge, analysts flagged improvements in rack assembly and testing, with estimates suggesting that rack builds from leading manufacturers could nearly double in the third quarter. The bank models 1.2 million Blackwell units shipped in October and 1.42 million in January.
“Supply is what matters on the night of the earnings call, but demand is what sets the path into 2026, where all indications are positive,” the analysts added.
China, however, remains a wildcard. Management is expected to take a cautious stance, assuming limited contribution from the region in the October quarter. Some licenses for H20 chips have been reinstated, but uncertainty persists. “When China was originally blocked by the U.S. Commerce Dept, it was described as an $8bn headwind into July. We assume that stays out of the model until there’s more certainty with licenses and demand,” Morgan Stanley noted.
Looking further out, the firm believes Nvidia’s dominant position in the market will remain intact. It projects the company will retain close to its current 85% market share in 2026, despite rising competition from AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and ASIC-based rivals. Analysts pointed to Nvidia’s unmatched scale in R&D, as well as ongoing advances in interconnect and system technologies, as reasons for its continued leadership.
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