Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Google’s parent company, may see its stock fluctuate by as much as 10% in either direction depending on the Department of Justice’s upcoming decision regarding its search monopoly case, according to analysts at BMO Capital.
BMO Capital noted that the U.S. District Court has already found Google guilty of “illegally maintaining its search monopoly in general search and search text advertising via exclusionary default agreements.”
A decision from Judge Amit Mehta on the appropriate remedies is expected this month, and possibly even today, “to clear the deck ahead of the new Ad-Tech trial starting shortly.”
The analysts described the potential ruling as meaningful but not extreme: “We believe that the final ruling from Judge Amit Mehta is poised to potentially impose significant but not Draconian changes to Google’s business.”
BMO highlighted that the likely outcome would be “a comprehensive behavioral consent decree—not a structural breakup—imposing lasting constraints on Google’s distribution practices, data sharing, and competitive behavior, potentially including AI.”
They also suggested Google will probably avoid being forced to divest Chrome or Android, though any remedies “could directly impact core revenue streams and operating flexibility.”
The firm warned that the larger risk lies in the upcoming Ad-Tech antitrust case, which “presents a higher probability of a structural breakup, with a ruling on remedies expected after September 2025.”
Combined, these cases could subject Google to “a decade of heightened regulatory oversight and fundamentally alter the competitive landscape for search and digital advertising.”
Shares may remain volatile, with BMO noting “GOOGL shares could be positioned for an up to (+/-) 10% move depending on the announced remedies.”
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