Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to release results after Wednesday’s close, and the stakes could not be higher. Options markets are pointing to a massive move that could reshape not just Nvidia’s stock but the broader AI trade and equity sentiment.
Current contracts are pricing in a 6.1% swing in either direction, equivalent to a jaw-dropping $270 billion in market capitalization — a move larger than the entire value of many S&P 500 members.
While eye-catching, the implied swing is actually the smallest expected post-earnings move since Q1 2024, when options traders anticipated even bigger volatility. Over the last eight quarters, Nvidia’s actual earnings-day moves have averaged 5.9%, still well below the 8.6% typically projected by the options market.
The key question: can Nvidia extend its streak of topping expectations and raising guidance?
Piper Sandler is betting yes, saying it expects “another positive quarter” with tailwinds from U.S. hyperscaler demand and a possible rebound in China. The firm recently boosted its price target to $225 from $180, projecting $45.1 billion in July-quarter revenue — right in line with company guidance — but highlighting upside if sales to China accelerate under new licensing rules. Analysts there estimate China alone could add $6 billion in revenue for the October quarter, with momentum building into 2026.
In addition, Piper Sandler analysts noted they are “encouraged by hyperscaler commentary around capex plans” for late 2025 and beyond, adding that such trends “should continue to pressure NVDA to meet this demand.”
Bank of America also sees plenty of room for upside, citing strong adoption of the company’s Blackwell chips and robust AI spending by major cloud providers. The bank projects July-quarter revenue of $47 billion, above the $45 billion Nvidia guided, and sees October-quarter sales at $54 billion — or potentially as high as $60 billion if shipments of H20 chips to China resume.
BofA analysts expect gross margins to climb to 73–74% by the third quarter, with further upside possible if previously written-down inventory is sold. Looking further out, they forecast fiscal 2026 revenue in the $210–215 billion range, with EPS between $4.70 and $4.80, comfortably above consensus.
The bank is even more bullish for fiscal 2027, suggesting earnings could hit $7 per share versus the current $5.87 Street estimate if AI spending continues to expand at its projected pace. According to BofA, if the market grows from $309 billion in 2025 to $341 billion in 2026 — sustaining around 60% annual growth — Nvidia could continue its trajectory as the clear AI leader.
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