Evercore ISI has raised its forecast for the S&P 500, projecting the index will climb to 7,750 by the end of 2026. The firm credited the accelerating influence of artificial intelligence, which it expects to lift corporate earnings and valuations in a way reminiscent of the late-1990s internet-driven rally.
Analysts noted that the current market upswing shares similarities with the tech-fueled bull run of that period, marked by quick recoveries from pullbacks and a Federal Reserve shifting toward rate cuts. However, unlike the dot-com bubble, they emphasized that recent gains have been more broadly distributed across sectors rather than narrowly concentrated.
Evercore boosted its earnings-per-share estimate for the S&P 500 to $264 in 2025 and $287 in 2026, citing strong second-quarter results, reduced trade policy risks, and early evidence of AI adoption improving business productivity. The bank highlighted opportunities in “AI enablers, adopters and adapters” within communication services, consumer discretionary, and information technology.
For the nearer term, Evercore lifted its 2025 year-end target to 6,250 from 5,600 but warned investors to brace for volatility. Analysts pointed out that market drawdowns of 10% or more are typical in long bull cycles, adding that hedging with index put options remains attractive while volatility gauges stay muted.
The firm outlined a range of possible outcomes: in a bullish scenario, enthusiasm could propel the S&P 500 as high as 9,000, while in a downside case, persistent inflation and sluggish growth could drag the benchmark back to 5,000.
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