Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to expand the value of international trade in goods and services by almost 40% by 2040, according to the World Trade Report 2025, released Wednesday by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The report outlines scenarios in which global trade grows between 34% and 37%, depending on the pace of technological adoption and policy alignment across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Global GDP could rise by 12-13% under these scenarios.
“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in her foreword.
In 2023, global trade in AI-enabling goods—including raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs—was valued at $2.3 trillion. The report finds that if lower- and middle-income nations halve the gap in digital infrastructure with high-income countries and adopt AI more widely, incomes in these economies could increase by 15% and 14%, respectively.
The WTO emphasizes that inclusive growth will require policies addressing the digital divide, investment in workforce skills, and the maintenance of open trading conditions. The report also notes that quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods have surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, largely imposed by high- and upper middle-income countries.
Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with some low-income nations facing bound tariffs as high as 45%. The WTO stresses its role in fostering equitable access, providing a forum for members to discuss AI-related trade issues, and highlighting 80 specific trade concerns focused on AI.
The report recommends additional member commitments—such as wider participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated General Agreement on Trade in Services obligations—to make AI adoption more inclusive and affordable globally.
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