Jefferies has raised concerns that Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest iPhone lineup may face pressures on average selling prices (ASP), even as overall demand trends appear stronger compared with last year.
Analysts at the firm noted that their “tracking of global lead time and HK’s resale prices indicates rising demand for iPhone 17, although the US is likely the weakest.” Delivery times have increased across all six markets monitored since pre-orders began on September 12, with the base, Pro, and Pro Max models showing higher year-on-year lead times—except in the United States.
Jefferies emphasized that “the US is still the weakest and, bear in mind the US is the largest iPhone market (33% of global unit volume).” China is emerging as particularly strong, with the iPhone 17 base model seeing lead times exceeding 35 days, supported by Apple’s “aggressive pricing (11-14% cut vs 16) and the 256GB being qualified for gov subsidies.” The Pro Max has also experienced longer waits in China, largely due to the unavailability of the Air model there.
In the resale market, Jefferies found “no bid for iPhone 17 base model” and “no bid for 17 Air,” while the Pro recorded only a small premium. Conversely, the Pro Max commanded a premium of 5% to 28% across all 12 variants, compared with nine variants trading at a premium last year.
Despite these positive signals for certain models, Jefferies warned that “downside risk for AAPL in ASP” persists, as strength in the base model “would not be able to offset weaknesses in 17 Air and Pro.”
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