Oil prices retreated on Monday after crude shipments from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Turkey resumed over the weekend, coupled with OPEC+ indications of an additional production increase in November, boosting global supply expectations.
Brent crude futures fell 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.70 a barrel by 06:30 GMT, after hitting levels not seen since July 31 last Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $65.23 a barrel, reversing much of Friday’s gains.
“Ongoing fears of production increase are limiting gains, but a tight near term outlook has crude prices in a vice as the trading week begins,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand.
Crude flowed on Saturday for the first time in two and a half years from northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey, following an interim agreement that broke a prolonged stalemate, according to Iraq’s oil ministry. The accord between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil producers operating in the area will allow 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day to reach Turkey’s Ceyhan port, the Iraqi oil minister told Kurdish broadcaster Rudaw on Friday.
The U.S. had pushed for this restart, which is expected to eventually return up to 230,000 bpd of crude to international markets as OPEC+ continues efforts to increase output and capture market share.
Three sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said the alliance is expected to approve at least a 137,000 bpd increase in production at its Sunday meeting, as elevated oil prices motivate the group to strengthen market position. However, OPEC+ has been producing roughly 500,000 bpd below its targets, defying market expectations of a supply glut.
“As OPEC prepares to further draw down its spare capacity, the risk of an October geopolitical surprise continues to rise,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said. “While the dominant summer narrative has been the Q4 2025 oversupply story, market participants are starting to factor in the accelerating wake-up risk posed by the ongoing Russia and Iran conflicts.”
Brent and WTI posted their largest weekly gains since June last week, rising more than 4%, driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure that disrupted fuel exports. Early Sunday, Russia launched one of its most sustained attacks on Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.
Meanwhile, the United Nations reinstated an arms embargo and additional sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following European-led actions that Tehran warned could provoke a harsh response.
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