Oil prices found some stability on Wednesday after two consecutive days of losses, as traders weighed the potential impact of an OPEC+ production increase next month and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown.
December Brent futures edged up 25 cents to $66.28 per barrel by 06:43 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 22 cents to $62.59 per barrel. Both benchmarks had dropped more than 3% on Monday, marking their sharpest one-day declines since August 1, before slipping another 1.5% on Tuesday.
Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet, noted, “The weakness stems largely from supply-side developments, with OPEC gradually reviving production … adding to market concerns over a potential supply overhang.”
Sources familiar with the matter said OPEC+ could approve a November output increase of up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), triple October’s boost, as Saudi Arabia moves to reclaim market share. Eight member countries, producing roughly half of the world’s oil, are reportedly considering increases of 274,000 to 411,000 bpd, with a third source suggesting the hike could reach 500,000 bpd.
OPEC clarified via X that reports claiming a 500,000 bpd increase were misleading.
Additional pressure came from U.S. inventory data, which showed crude stocks fell while gasoline and distillate reserves rose last week. According to sources citing American Petroleum Institute estimates, crude inventories dropped 3.67 million barrels in the week ending September 26, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million and 3 million barrels, respectively.
Sachdeva added, “While U.S. crude inventories have been on a declining trend, the pace of drawdowns has slowed, tempering bullish sentiment.”
The partial U.S. government shutdown on Wednesday, triggered by deep partisan divides, is expected to halt the release of the September nonfarm payrolls report, disrupt air travel, suspend scientific research, withhold pay for U.S. troops, and furlough 750,000 federal workers at an estimated daily cost of $400 million.
Concerns over fuel demand were also reinforced by Asian manufacturing data, with surveys showing contractions across most major economies in September due to softer Chinese demand, slowing U.S. growth, and looming tariffs.
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