U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday amid continued uncertainty over the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has delayed key economic reports ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. A senior White House official warned that mass federal layoffs could be imminent, as negotiations between Democrats and Republicans show little progress. Meanwhile, Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) is set to release quarterly earnings, and Japan’s ruling party selected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader.
Markets React to Shutdown
Investors kept a close eye on the shutdown while awaiting the start of the third-quarter earnings season. By 03:10 ET, Dow futures were up 86 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures rose 20 points (0.3%), and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 103 points (0.4%).
On Friday, Wall Street experienced mixed movements: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record closing highs, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.3%. Shares of Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), which forecasted a $600 million shortfall in fiscal 2026 revenue, weighed on the tech-heavy index.
White House Warns of Federal Layoffs
The partial shutdown has also delayed critical economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts at Vital Knowledge highlighted “darkening storm clouds” in private-sector metrics and rising inflation pressures.
“The absence of official data has also taken on more importance with the Fed set to unveil a fresh interest rate decision in October,” they said. Last month, the Fed cut interest rates to support the labor market, risking renewed inflation pressures. Despite missing government data, markets widely anticipate further rate cuts in the upcoming Fed meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
A senior White House official cautioned that mass layoffs of federal employees could start if President Donald Trump determines negotiations with congressional Democrats are “absolutely going nowhere.”
Constellation Brands Earnings in Focus
Constellation Brands will report its August-quarter results after Monday’s market close. The beverage company struggled in the previous quarter, missing sales and profit expectations due to Trump-era aluminum tariffs and broader economic uncertainty, which curtailed consumer spending on beer and wine.
“These trends have threatened to compound a demand environment for the industry that was already tepid,” analysts said, citing tighter immigration policies as a potential drag on beer consumption among Hispanic consumers.
Japan’s Takaichi Wins LDP Leadership
Japanese equities led gains in Asia, with the Nikkei reaching record highs following the weekend victory of fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election. Takaichi is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister, with a parliamentary session scheduled for mid-October.
“Takaichi was viewed as the most dovish among the five front-runners for LDP leadership,” analysts noted. She has called for increased fiscal spending and tax relief to support Japan’s fragile economy and is expected to discourage the Bank of Japan from further interest rate hikes.
Oil Prices Rebound on Limited OPEC+ Output Increase
Oil prices rose sharply Monday, rebounding from last week’s losses, after OPEC+ announced a modest 137,000 bpd increase for November, the same as October, but far below the 500,000 bpd some had anticipated.
“The decision provided relief to traders who had feared a flood of new barrels would overwhelm fragile demand,” analysts said. OPEC+, which has added more than 2.7 million bpd this year, continues gradually unwinding pandemic-era production cuts.
Constellation Brands stock price
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