Bernstein has released a refreshed long-term perspective on copper, structured around four core themes that capture the unique behavior of the copper market.
The report opens by framing market fundamentals, emphasizing that in a free-market environment, prices act as the mechanism that balances supply and demand. As Bernstein explains, “missing supply” should be read as “high copper price.” Their analysis indicates a notable supply gap may appear after 2028, though the market today is broadly balanced near $10,000 per tonne.
The firm notes that copper mine outputs are left-skewed, meaning negative production events are more frequent than positive ones. This asymmetry makes disruptions particularly influential on overall market balance and prevents simple averaging.
Bernstein likens the copper market’s dynamics to “a mechanical watch rather than a see-saw,” where many small, interconnected factors determine stability. Even with outages at major mines such as Grasberg, Kamoa Kakula, and Cobre Panama, the outlook points to a reasonably balanced market in the coming years.
On pricing, the analysis highlights that above-ground inventories can distort signals between supply and demand. Currently, the market is one standard deviation tighter than its historical average. According to Bernstein, tightening by half a sigma could drive copper prices to $16,000/t, whereas loosening by the same amount could reduce prices to $9,000/t.
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