The partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government remains the dominant story this week, affecting key economic releases and shaping investor expectations ahead of an upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting. Market participants will also focus on the Fed’s September meeting minutes and third-quarter earnings from companies such as Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL).
U.S. Government Shutdown
U.S. stock futures climbed Monday as investors monitored the ongoing federal shutdown in Washington, while awaiting both the Fed’s interest rate decision and the start of third-quarter earnings.
The closure has delayed important economic reports, including the nonfarm payrolls, increasing reliance on private-sector data. “The absence of official data has heightened attention on private economic indicators,” Vital Knowledge analysts said, noting that trackers of private employment and business activity are signaling “darkening storm clouds” and rising inflation.
With the Fed expected to deliver a fresh rate decision in October, the lack of official numbers has heightened market focus. Despite the data gap, most investors anticipate further rate reductions at upcoming meetings, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Political gridlock persists as negotiations drag on. A senior White House official warned Sunday that mass federal layoffs could occur if talks with congressional Democrats to reopen the government are “absolutely going nowhere.”
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Traders will scrutinize the Fed’s September meeting minutes, due Wednesday. At that meeting, the central bank cut rates for the first time since December, emphasizing support for the labor market rather than signaling immediate concern over inflation.
Officials also indicated potential further cuts in October and December, though the magnitude of reductions in 2026 remains uncertain. “[A] cut is fully priced for this month, and the same is virtually true of December’s meeting,” ING analysts said. “The much bigger debate is what happens in 2026. And the government shutdown — and the resulting data void — is unlikely to materially change that.”
OpenAI DevDay
Investors will also watch OpenAI’s developers’ conference. CEO Sam Altman teased on social media that the event would feature “some new stuff” aimed at helping users “build” with artificial intelligence.
OpenAI, recently valued at $500 billion, has released Sora, a standalone AI video-generating app in the U.S. and Canada. The tool allows users to create AI videos, including those derived from copyrighted content. Hollywood has expressed concerns, and at least one major studio is reportedly planning to prevent its material from appearing in the app.
Constellation Brands Earnings
Constellation Brands is scheduled to release its August-quarter results after Monday’s close. The company underperformed last quarter, missing both revenue and profit targets. Contributing factors include Trump-era aluminum tariffs and broader economic uncertainty, which have dampened consumer spending on beer and wine.
A broad crackdown on immigration has also been cited as affecting beer consumption, particularly among Hispanic consumers, potentially worsening an already weak demand environment.
Delta Air Lines Earnings
Delta Air Lines will report its quarterly results on Thursday, following a reaffirmation of its full-year and current-quarter guidance.
In September, the carrier raised the lower end of its third-quarter revenue forecast to a 2%-4% increase from the previous 0%-4% range. The revision reflects growing optimism in the U.S. travel sector after earlier-year disruptions linked to Trump’s tariffs.
Executives noted that summer discounts and promotions helped stimulate demand, and resilient travel patterns could allow airlines to increase fares in the latter part of 2025.
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