Oil prices moved little on Thursday as investors balanced optimism over a ceasefire deal in Gaza — seen as a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions — with concerns over stalled peace negotiations in Ukraine that could keep sanctions on Russia in place and cap its exports.
By 06:29 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 2 cents at $66.27 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 1 cent to $62.54.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a “long-sought” ceasefire and hostage-release deal for Gaza had been reached under his plan to end the two-year conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would call a cabinet meeting to approve the agreement, with a signing ceremony expected at noon local time (0900 GMT).
“The devil is always in the details, and I would avoid speculating right now due to the many false starts that we have witnessed in the past,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.
The Gaza conflict has been one of the factors supporting crude prices in recent months, as investors have priced in the risk of wider regional disruption.
Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, said the ceasefire is unlikely to alter oil flows in the region since OPEC+ “has not hit its increased production targets.” The producer alliance had agreed to a smaller-than-expected output hike for November, which helped ease oversupply concerns.
Crude prices rose about 1% on Wednesday to their highest in a week, after markets interpreted stalled Ukraine peace talks as a sign that sanctions on Russia — the world’s second-largest oil exporter — could persist.
“As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the geopolitical risk premium is destined to remain elevated, as Russia’s oil production at risk remains high,” Galimberti said.
In the U.S., total weekly petroleum products supplied — a key indicator of demand — increased to 21.99 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Analysts at JP Morgan said global oil demand started October on a softer note. Indicators such as container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles, truck toll mileage in Germany, and Chinese port activity point to slower momentum. They estimate global demand averaged 105.9 million barrels per day in the first week of October, 300,000 bpd higher than a year earlier but 90,000 bpd below their forecasts.
Global crude and product inventories also grew more slowly, increasing by 8 million barrels last week — the smallest weekly build in five weeks, they added.
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