U.S. stock futures climbed on Monday as President Donald Trump struck a less confrontational tone toward Beijing over the weekend, helping ease fears of an escalating trade conflict. While he recently threatened steep tariffs, Trump emphasized he was not trying to “hurt” China. Strong Chinese export data added to positive sentiment, while safe-haven flows lifted gold to fresh records and oil prices bounced from multi-month lows.
Futures climb on easing trade fears
Wall Street futures opened the week on a strong note as traders reacted to Trump’s apparent shift in tone after Friday’s sharp selloff.
By 03:19 ET, Dow futures were up 468 points, or 1.0%, S&P 500 futures gained 96 points, or 1.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures surged 472 points, or 1.9%.
Friday’s market rout followed Trump’s social media posts reigniting trade war fears after China expanded export restrictions on rare earth elements — critical for many industries. In response, Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and additional export controls on “any and all critical software” by November 1. He also hinted at backing out of a potential meeting with Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, though the talks were not officially canceled.
The remarks revived concerns of a major trade confrontation that had eased somewhat after earlier negotiations in 2025.
Trump says U.S. not looking to “hurt” China
Over the weekend, Trump appeared to backtrack slightly, saying that Washington was not seeking to “hurt” China.
Beijing defended its export curbs on rare earths as a response to what it called U.S. “aggression” but avoided introducing new tariffs.
“This latest dispute could still blow over if cool heads prevail,” analysts at Capital Economics wrote, pointing to the possibility that the Trump–Xi meeting could provide “an off-ramp.” However, they warned that “both sides may dig in their heels, expecting their opponent to fold first,” noting that while China has proved more resilient than expected, prolonged tensions could carry major economic risks.
U.S. trade officials said Washington attempted to schedule a call with Beijing following the export announcement, but the Chinese side postponed. Chinese authorities also accused the U.S. of “double standards” over its blacklisting of Chinese firms and new port fee measures.
China exports surprise to the upside
Chinese exports beat expectations in September, although renewed trade tensions are casting a shadow over the country’s economic outlook.
Exports rose 8.3% year-on-year, outpacing forecasts of 6% and accelerating sharply from the 4.4% growth recorded in August.
“This resilience shows that China has strengthened trade with the rest of the world amid U.S. protectionism,” analysts at ING Group wrote.
Beijing has diversified its export markets to reduce reliance on the U.S., a strategy that has supported its 5% growth target. However, Trump’s threat of triple-digit tariffs could test the limits of that approach.
Gold extends record rally
Gold prices surged to new record highs on Monday, as renewed trade uncertainty and geopolitical concerns pushed investors toward safe-haven assets.
Spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,070.29 an ounce by 02:53 ET (05:53 GMT), after hitting a new record of $4,078.05 earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures climbed 1.6% to $4,089.45.
Silver followed suit, reaching its own all-time high. The rally gained momentum Friday after Trump’s tariff threats sent risk assets tumbling, reinforcing gold’s role as a store of value during periods of volatility. Even as Trump’s tone eased slightly, investors remained cautious.
Oil rebounds from five-month lows
Oil prices rebounded on Monday after sliding to five-month lows last week, supported by optimism that trade tensions might ease.
Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $63.72 a barrel by 03:47 ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.6% to $59.83. Both benchmarks had settled sharply lower on Friday, marking their weakest levels since May 7.
A U.S. holiday delayed WTI settlement to Tuesday. Analysts also pointed to easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Over the weekend, Hamas released the first group of Israeli hostages as part of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire framework aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza — a development seen as supportive for supply stability in the region.
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