A renewed flare-up in U.S.-China trade tensions is set to dominate investor attention this week, even as U.S. futures pushed higher on Monday after President Donald Trump struck a less confrontational tone. Artificial intelligence is also likely to remain in the spotlight, with Oracle Corporation hosting a major event. Meanwhile, results from ASML Holding N.V. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company may provide more clues on the AI boom, and big banks are set to kick off earnings season.
Trade tensions in focus
Fresh remarks from President Trump on U.S.-China trade relations are shaping sentiment as the new week begins.
Over the weekend, Trump reassured investors by saying that everything would be “fine” and Washington was not looking to “hurt” China — a noticeable shift from his sharper tone late last week.
On Friday, Trump unsettled markets by suggesting he could slap additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and impose export controls on “any and all critical software” by November 1. He also hinted at uncertainty around a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month.
While those comments weighed on Wall Street Friday, futures bounced back Monday. Analysts at Capital Economics noted the situation could ease if “cool heads prevail.”
Oracle AI World
Even with trade tensions simmering, AI remains a defining market driver.
“AI is the single most important force in the entire market,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote, adding that “catalysts related to it are crucial.”
Traders will be watching closely as Oracle’s AI World conference unfolds in Las Vegas this week. The event runs through October 16, following a record run in Oracle’s stock in September. At the time, the company said revenue at its cloud division was on track to exceed half a trillion dollars, highlighting massive corporate demand for AI-enabled tools.
Any updates on margins, cash flow, or strategic direction could have a significant impact on the sector.
ASML and TSMC earnings
Earnings from ASML and TSMC are expected to offer further insight into the ongoing AI investment wave.
In July, ASML cautioned that growth in 2026 could be constrained by delays in U.S. chip factory investments tied to trade uncertainty. The warning overshadowed stronger-than-expected quarterly net bookings of €5.54 billion, fueled by demand for its EUV lithography systems.
TSMC, the world’s largest advanced chip producer, is projected to report a 28% profit surge for the third quarter, according to Reuters. The company’s results, due Thursday, are expected to show record net profit of T$415.4 billion, supported by a 30% jump in revenue.
Bank earnings kick off
The quarterly earnings season begins this week with major U.S. banks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. reports Tuesday, followed by Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
Although analysts have remained constructive on the sector, weaker yields could pressure net interest income, and a softer labor market may weigh on credit quality. With several economic data releases delayed by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, markets may look to banks’ commentary for clues about the health of the economy.
Jamie Dimon has already warned that U.S. equities could face a sharp correction within the next six to 24 months.
Gold’s new record
Gold soared to new record highs Monday as renewed trade tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,075.25 per ounce by 05:51 ET (09:51 GMT) after hitting an all-time high of $4,078.05 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures climbed 2.4% to $4,097.02 per ounce, with silver following suit.
Prices spiked after Trump reignited trade concerns Friday, prompting investors to flock to traditional safe havens. While his softer language over the weekend has provided some relief, traders remain alert to abrupt policy shifts from the White House.
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