Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares may be reflecting excessive optimism, according to a Wall Street analyst who kept a Sector Weight rating on the stock despite better-than-expected September data.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel acknowledged that Apple’s hardware performance was solid, but argued that it doesn’t justify the current valuation.
“With AAPL trading at all-time highs, we see the stock as expensive and pricing in lofty expectations though we are lacking a bear case,” Nispel wrote in a note to clients.
According to KeyBanc’s internal data tracker, indexed spending climbed 17% month over month in September, outpacing the three-year average of 12%. But on a yearly basis, spending dropped 15%, indicating a slowdown from August levels. Nispel highlighted that the firm’s KFLD readings were “the most bearish data points we’ve seen” compared with carrier checks and consumer surveys.
Despite that, KeyBanc expects Apple to beat iPhone sales projections for the fiscal fourth quarter and to issue guidance that aligns with expectations for the following period.
“We see ASPs, not units, being the driver of growth in FY26,” the analysts wrote. The firm increased its revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 by up to 2.2%, supported by stronger demand for iPhones and wearables.
Even with the improved outlook, KeyBanc is keeping a neutral view. “We see a neutral risk/reward given the all-time-high stock valuation, which seems to be pricing in a lot of growth,” Nispel said, adding that Apple still lacks a strong bull case despite easing regulatory and China-related risks.