Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) climbed 2% on Friday, defying the sharp declines across the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, after Baird analyst David Konig upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral.
Konig assigned a new $110.00 price target, offering sizable upside from Thursday’s close at $82.34. The call came even though Circle’s shares have significantly lagged the S&P 500 since mid-year—dropping 55% while the benchmark gained 9% from June 30, 2025.
In his note, Konig pointed to several encouraging trends. USDC stablecoin circulation saw powerful momentum, rising 92% year-over-year in the third quarter, following 86% growth in the prior quarter. The analyst also highlighted a sequential doubling of on-Circle USDC, where Circle captures 100% of reserve income.
The upgrade cited additional performance drivers as well, including 77% YoY growth in active wallets and strong engagement with the company’s Arc/CPN testing initiative. According to Konig, CPN has already onboarded around 100 partners, with more than 500 prospective participants in the pipeline.
Konig characterized Circle’s valuation as “reasonable”, estimating it at roughly 50 times 2026 earnings, which he considers appropriate given the firm’s rapid expansion across its core business lines.
The improved rating arrives shortly after Circle’s lock-up period expired on November 13, a factor that had pressured the stock along with concerns tied to lower interest rates and rising distribution expenses.